shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133144
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/9/2016 11:01:30 AM
Long overnight Xiv Uco ung oil Erx
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133146
- Ignore pthomas215 |
12/9/2016 11:48:44 AM
Dust and Jdst just blew past resistance points. it could be the start of what you were describing shillihs....the DUST storm followed by vix. rates prob go up next week.
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133148
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/9/2016 12:09:05 PM
I think so too. Could make a good indicator.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133157
- Ignore pthomas215 |
12/9/2016 3:04:39 PM
the reason I said that is I am trying a new system on trading overnight gaps. I thought for sure last night JDST would open down so I paper traded a short. XIV behaved like I thought it would. I just couldnt figure out why JDST didnt behave the way I thought. Until it busted up.
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133160
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/9/2016 5:23:36 PM
That's great PT. Help us out.
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133183
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/12/2016 9:36:15 AM
Long oil ung Erx Xiv dust
Short Tvix
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133202
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
12/13/2016 3:30:22 PM
Today's Tip.
Last bear market, other than being completely out of the market, only one play worked.
From Jan 2008 to March 2009 everything failed, even bonds failed. The only ETF play that would
have made money would have been shorting Xiv. So if you have the guts to stay short for 2 years, that's the play, otherwise stay out.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133203
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
12/13/2016 3:44:28 PM
You also would have made money being long SDS or (even better) long DTO (which went from 22 at it's inception date in July 2008 to over 250 by February 2009). In retrospect that should have been an easy one to see coming, when oil was at $147/barrel and the stock market was down 20+% from its 2007 high.
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133208
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/13/2016 6:56:47 PM
Don't think inverse longs work well in bear markets due to the fact that longer range indicators will get you in late and exit too late. This is my experience with my bear indicator. I think this is so but I'll check again.
Bear market starts when using SH., monthly ma.2 closes above ma.21 in my book.
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shillllihs
6,049 posts
msg #133217
- Ignore shillllihs |
12/14/2016 10:04:37 AM
Xiv 45.38. 1/3rd position. Thinking of always holding a 3rd position and buying around it. Pullbacks
on Xiv in bull markets can be 50% which would bring it to 23 but rebounds are quick. So I would buy 2/3rds at bottom with a cost average of 30. Prob. Bounces back to 45, making 50% several weeks after the dive. This is all in a perfect world.
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