novacane32000
331 posts
msg #117895
- Ignore novacane32000
modified |
1/25/2014 9:29:53 PM
On Friday RSI(6) closed at 20 and since 1993 RSI(6) has closed between 19-20 only 23 times.
Holding SPY until RSI(6) closes above 50 has historically W 18 L 5 (78%). Worse loss has been 1.17% best win has been around 3% which happened 4 times so this is a trade well worth the risk .
I figured this manually with an excel sheet. If anyone can simplify with a filter maybe we can all profit.
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #117896
- Ignore miketranz |
1/26/2014 10:40:54 AM
I agree 100%.Any time you can get 78% odds on a trade,you take it.The main issue is pulling the trigger in extremely negative sentiment.Good info,thanks Miketranz...
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #117900
- Ignore miketranz
modified |
1/26/2014 12:42:45 PM
PS:My go long indicator is at -1.Someone on here posted it and I've been using it ever since with very good results.If you want to get on the "casino side of the trade" this is where it's at.Miketranz..symlist(SPY)
set{longposition, count(stochastics %K(9,1) below stochastics %D(9,1,7),1)}
set{shortposition, count(stochastics %K(9,1) above stochastics %D(9,1,7),1)}
add column longposition
add column shortposition
draw stochastics %K(9,1) on plot stochastics %D(9,1,7)
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novacane32000
331 posts
msg #117901
- Ignore novacane32000 |
1/26/2014 4:35:05 PM
Some more stats on the original trade.
The avr gain for all 23 trades is 1.44% with an average hold time of 8 trading days so it does require some patients.
If you want a quicker exit you can sell when RSI(6) reaches 40 in which case you will have one less win (17-6, 74%) and your avr win will be quite less at .86% but you will be out on avr in 4.5 days. Only 4 trades had increased gains by exiting at RSI(6) = 40.
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #117903
- Ignore Eman93 |
1/27/2014 12:13:52 AM
nov.. this is as simple as it gets..
http://stockcharts.com/public/1424685/chartbook/129091841;
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novacane32000
331 posts
msg #118118
- Ignore novacane32000 |
2/7/2014 4:03:18 PM
For the thousands of you out there who took this trade..:)
1/24/14 SPY closed 178.89 RSI(6)= 21
A few minutes before the bell on 2/7/14 SPY is at 179.67 with RSI(6)= 58
Gain is only .43% but if you are trading SPY you are probably trading big dollars so a nice win.
There are dozens of combinations of trades like this using RSI(6) and SPY that have a high winning percentage . Many are for small gains like the one above so a big acct does best using this strategy.
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miketranz
961 posts
msg #118120
- Ignore miketranz |
2/7/2014 5:00:53 PM
You can trade the XLK tech sector etf at appx $35/share and get almost the same results for those with smaller accounts.When the market takes off,tech is the best bang for the buck..
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