| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Is this a crash or a correction? | << 1 ... 16 17 18 19 20 ... 22 >>Post Follow-up |
| Cheese 1,374 posts msg #145694 - Ignore Cheese modified |
12/24/2018 10:47:12 AM ron22, I am not an expert at this, but some traders said they only look at price actions. With paid subscriptions, some chart services will let users display different chart types on different panels with different time frames on the same screen, e.g. candlesticks, Heiken-Ashi, renko. hourly, daily |
| Mactheriverrat 3,153 posts msg #145698 - Ignore Mactheriverrat modified |
12/24/2018 12:56:23 PM EMA4 crosses below EMA9 is the best so far. I was testing a EMA8 crosses below/above MA20 as a trigger as what pat suggests as to what he is saying. The EMA4 crosses below EMA9 triggers faster than the EMA8 crosses below MA20 . Have to study this more. Very Interesting posts here! Merry Christmas! |
| four 5,087 posts msg #145707 - Ignore four |
12/24/2018 5:45:55 PM https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2018/12/21/beenhere/ I just want to point out the action in 10-year high-yield spreads. This is the rate that high-yield bonds are yielding above government treasuries. Stocks are simply backing up in sympathy with the widening of credit spreads. |
| ron22 255 posts msg #145713 - Ignore ron22 |
12/25/2018 10:00:51 PM Ed, I am using the guppy filter posted below. I am using cnt49 count as the buy signal. I am entering at next open. Cheese and Mac, thank you both for your valuable input. |
| nibor100 1,031 posts msg #145725 - Ignore nibor100 |
12/27/2018 8:21:24 AM @ron22, Wow, that returns a lot stocks and I'm not quite sure how you are picking the ones to trade, so an example with trade date would help. Otherwise, it looks like that filter has left off a key part of the Guppy charts, the long range moving averages. Generally you want to see those in comparison the short term moving averages to see crossover points and/or longer running trends. Below is a Guppy based filter that I've been experimenting with for TQQQ trades that might give you some ideas to cut out some of the ema4/ema9 whipsaws. The basic premise for safer trades with less whipsaws; is that the Ema15 needs to be above the Ema30 before acting on any other indicator. That is the 1st row below the volume part of the chart. The 2nd row you'll find the days the ema4 is above the ema9, and you might spot the better whipsaws when the ema15 is above the ema30 along with separation between the short term moving avgs and long term moving avgs, and the poorer whipsaws when the reverse is true. Below that I have drawn the standard MACD for a comparison the ema15/ema 30 and below that a line showing the MACD avgs 12 vs 26.. Finally, I have a chart showing the 3 day returns for each day, You can change the number of days if you like. I was experimenting to see if holding TQQQ for 3 days after a good entry point had a reasonably high avg return. Perhaps to exit after 3 days without messing with stops. Hope this helps some, Ed S. |
| ron22 255 posts msg #145726 - Ignore ron22 |
12/27/2018 9:56:02 AM Ed, I really appreciate your detailed reply and the filter. One of my favorite symlists is (fas,faz,tza,tna,srty,urty,tqqq,sqqq,). Your post gives me a lot of info to review and digest. Just a 15 minute review of some charts reveals that the EMA15 above EMA30 by itself helps prevent a lot of whipsaws. MACD as confirmation should be helpful. 3 day returns instead of stops is an interesting approach, but this exit strategy and stops cannot prevent bad days like 12/26. Thank you very much for all your ideas and efforts. |
| ron22 255 posts msg #145729 - Ignore ron22 |
12/27/2018 12:01:07 PM Ed, 3 example trades are SQQQ on 8/16, 9/7 and 9/18. EMA15 above EMA30 would have kept me out of these losing trades. Occasionally ema15 above ema30 delays an entry by 1-3 days, but this reduced profit on uptrends is well worth it because of the whipsaws that I avoid. Your filter and remembering that the S/T group must be above the L/T group should make me a better trader. Thanks again for your help. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #145731 - Ignore four |
12/27/2018 2:40:14 PM https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-bear-market-for-stocks-in-2019-because-economy-earnings-will-keep-expanding-2018-12-26 Recessions do not start with unemployment at a 49-year low of 3.7% and the economy growing at around 3%. Before a recession can start, the economy needs to slow, and the unemployment rate needs to stop falling and begin turning higher because of the economic slowdown. That takes time. While a slowdown is likely to begin in 2019, the recession will most likely happen in 2020 or 2021 |
| Cheese 1,374 posts msg #145826 - Ignore Cheese |
1/2/2019 1:26:51 PM @karennma asked: Is this a crash or a correction? Well, we've got our answer today January 2, 2019, straight from the top. Nope, not a crash Not a correction either. Trump: “We had a little glitch in the stock markets last month,” but they will go up again as trade deals are made and have a long way (up) to go  |
| four 5,087 posts msg #145830 - Ignore four modified |
1/2/2019 3:02:21 PM https://finance.yahoo.com/video/markets-not-only-indicators-economic-133700207.html MacroMavens, President Stephanie Pomboy corporate debt : low quality and need to refinance fed : removing liquidity buybacks : slowing from a previous interview with her... underfunded pensions in more trouble when markets fall |
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