graftonian
1,089 posts
msg #132199
- Ignore graftonian |
10/28/2016 1:14:52 PM
VIX up a buck in last 15 minutes
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #132214
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/28/2016 6:52:00 PM
I think it is officially impossible to tell the direction of XIV/TVIX over the next week. we have a front runner for president of the US under FBI investigation. I think that falls under the "you cant make this stuff up" category. Will the clinton campaign release something else this weekend?
The vix bounces normally off 12 or 13, but it usually resists around 15. Not this time. I would ordinarily go long on XIV no question right now. Not so sure now...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132215
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/28/2016 10:20:41 PM
I will be shorting TVIX on Monday. This spike will not last more than a day or two - better to take advantage of it than wait it out.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #132216
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/28/2016 11:54:15 PM
Thanks Kevin. you indeed are the vix expert. your take on this is much appreciated.
Just curious...XIV has great long movements I believe.. Why would you choose to short TVIX instead?
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #132218
- Ignore gmg733
modified |
10/29/2016 1:20:24 AM
Because he thinks vol is going down (if he realizes it or note), tvix has a natural drag to it, and vol unlike price is mean reverting. 3 ways to win, 1 way to lose. The drag and vol mean reverting is an edge. The only way to make money trading is an edge.
For instance, most folks don't get options trading. When vol spikes you sell vol because it is mean reverting. That is an edge in the market. Vol is overstated. Take advantage of it.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132220
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/29/2016 7:41:10 AM
That, and I have a SS system developed for shorting TVIX that has signaled 215 times in the last 5 years with a 94.88% win rate and an average gain per trade of 7.47%.
But since you "... made money seeing what Kevin posts, and then taking the opposite position" I'm sure you'll do just fine taking the other side of this trade.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #132221
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/29/2016 8:45:03 AM
GMG, thank you. That was a great explanation. And Kevin indeed your system sometimes has been off timing wise, and I have made money taking the opposite position. But as always, I appreciate your contributions in helping folks like myself learn more.
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #132226
- Ignore johnpaulca |
10/29/2016 6:33:40 PM
" Kevin indeed your system sometimes has been off timing wise"
PT...using a volume reversion indicator will have some lag, try using and RSI(2) with it, also Monday is your strongest day using this system while Friday is the weakest day.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #132236
- Ignore pthomas215 |
10/30/2016 11:36:49 PM
Jp, thank you. .
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #132317
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/2/2016 3:07:20 PM
And Kevin indeed your system sometimes has been off timing wise, and I have made money taking the opposite position.
Well PT - I hope you actually did take the opposite side on my TVIX short as you would be a wealthier man right now. Still holding but not sure if I shouldn't cut losses and move on (which would probably trigger the mean-reversion just for laughs).
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