emwalker
35 posts
msg #142128
- Ignore emwalker
modified |
2/11/2018 5:36:11 PM
Topic says it all. Is it possible to make money on technical analysis alone? Can you simply run a scan, buy the stock, sell on the sell signal and make money in the long run? I used to think if it back tests good, then you have a good strategy. Then I started playing with stratasearch. I could make an awesome system that works great from 2013-2016. But then I’d back test the system during 2017 and it would fall apart. It’s clear to me that back testing is just simply curve fitting, and when the strategy is used outside of the years it was developed against, it fails because it’s no longer in the same curve anymore. Ive even tried using Finviz to look for CANSLIM stocks to focus my scans on, still nothing.
Ive been trying to trade off and on for the past 4 years, and have failed every time. I think a winning scan is just a unicorn at this point. Does anyone actually make money for long periods of time using scans?
|
johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #142129
- Ignore johnpaulca |
2/11/2018 5:42:02 PM
Most people will fail but just won't admit it, so they sell news letters, give investment advice, etc.
|
Mactheriverrat
3,153 posts
msg #142132
- Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified |
2/11/2018 6:14:12 PM
I've fail many time's. Blown up my account twice. Then I kept learning what worked.
Took a few course's from BullsonWallstreet and a few others. Paper traded for some time. I still haves losses but I don't hold thinking it will come back.
TA is IMHO way better than CANSLIM.
The bottom line is KEEP Learning . When you can wash , rinse and repeat on a regular basis then trade live.
|
pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #142133
- Ignore pthomas215 |
2/11/2018 6:29:25 PM
Technical Analysis on ETF's is actually a lot safer than most investing. You dont have to worry about a sudden news event or earnings as you do with stocks. CAN SLIM is IBD's revenue stream...that's it. I sampled their service--and feel their buy recommendations come a bit too late in the cycle. but you are kind of comparing apples and oranges...CAN SLIM is really for 1-3-5-10 year holds. Tech analysis is more for swing trading.
|
emwalker
35 posts
msg #142134
- Ignore emwalker |
2/11/2018 6:41:21 PM
I agree about ETFs being safer (except xiv). But even still, finding a TA strategy that works is simply curve fitting. How do you know if a strategy is legit, or if you simply found something to fit the curve? I don’t think there is a way...
|
Mactheriverrat
3,153 posts
msg #142135
- Ignore Mactheriverrat |
2/11/2018 6:43:38 PM
http://bullsonwallstreet.com
https://www.lightningalerts.com
http://fousalerts.com
|
miketranz
961 posts
msg #142140
- Ignore miketranz |
2/11/2018 9:33:16 PM
Is it possible to make money on technical analysis alone? I say yes it is.Fundamentals,earnings won't make you any money.Just look at how many times stocks double,triple with no fundamentals or earnings whatsoever.Trading pure price action,what's right in front of you,in real time,is the only way to make money.It takes the guess work out of the equation.You go with the flow.
|
johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #142141
- Ignore johnpaulca |
2/11/2018 9:49:22 PM
Mr. Buffet might disagree with you Mike.
|
ron22
255 posts
msg #142142
- Ignore ron22 |
2/11/2018 10:09:41 PM
miketranz, This is my first attempt at trading price action. 1. watch one minute candles from 9:30 to 9:35AM. 2. look for uptrend(higher highs and higher lows). 3. trigger entry at 9:36 on uptrend. 4. Stop loss one ATR below entry. 5. Profit target two ATR above entry. Does this seem like a basic system that is okay to paper trade? I would appreciate any feedback positive or negative. Thank you.
|
miketranz
961 posts
msg #142143
- Ignore miketranz |
2/11/2018 11:41:02 PM
Ron,you're on the right track.I trade a similar set up using a 3 min or 5 min candle depending on how volatile the stock is.I go long any print above the completion of the open candle and exit the trade upon any of three conditions.1)Any completed red candle 2)10am.3)Any reversal back into the body of the open candle.It's that simple.If I'm right,I want the trade to run right up to 10am.Shorts are reversed.Works great on gap opens.Some stocks work better than others.The key is finding the right stocks.It's my only day trade set up.Very low risk,decent reward.John,you're 100% correct....
|