MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #79572
- Ignore MARY4MONEY
modified |
9/18/2009 9:11:09 AM
okay guys here is the biggest lession i can teach you- last time qld was at 99.5% it fill from 120- 20 the vix monthly rsi-2 is at 0.96%- the last time it was that low the qid went from 33-100- also this rally for thr last 2 weeks has been going up on very low volume- thats very negative for sustaining a real rally-since aapl has a tendency to be the strongest running stock up and down-- we are setting at >99.8% on the daily weekly and monthly rsi-2- last time aapl was this high was at 200- it fill to 125 bounced to 180 then fill back to marches low of near 80%- go to RealtimeStockquote.com-- plug in the qqqq since it always is the leading indicator for all the indexes-- use 3 years--monthly and a 23 period rsi-2- you will see it hit the top of the lr blue line the last few days notice how low the volume is - you can do the vix on this site--its monthly rsi-2 is at 2.4% the lowest its ever been before--last time it got to a low of 4%- it went from 17 to 88 and at 88$ the monthly vix was at 99.6%- sound famliar- plug in any of the indexes and you will see they are dead top at the upper lr line- and between 98-99.4%-we wont make a move down like we did this last time on the qqqq from 55 to 25--we will see maybe a 10-20% ,move down into the next weekly low rsi-2 - if you look at the charts- you will see the last time the weekly rsi-2 was under 5% was the 3-6-09 and 7-10-09 bottoms- te 3-6 bottom- qld went 20-40 the july 10 bottm it went 32-51-- also you can use the us dollar as a gauge--at the 75 bottom before it was at 5% on the monthly charts and 99.9% at 90 on the 3-6-06 market bottom and now its at 75 again and at 6%- the weekly rsi-2 is very very accurate on gold- its at 99.3%
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MARY4MONEY
806 posts
msg #79575
- Ignore MARY4MONEY |
9/18/2009 9:39:28 AM
okay one other very important lession- the banks lead us down and then up-they havent gone up with the indexes the last 2-3 weeks- and they are showing massive neg divergences on the weekly rsi-2-- when bac made its run to 18.40 last month- at 17.75 the price it is today the weekly rsi-2 was at 99.6%- today at the same price it now at 68%- a minus 32%- that says the market will go down soon- maybe starting next week- at least till the banks get to <5-10% on the weekly rsi-2
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alf44
2,025 posts
msg #79579
- Ignore alf44
modified |
9/18/2009 10:35:52 AM
M4M...thanks for the "lessions" !!! ROFL
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alf44
2,025 posts
msg #79583
- Ignore alf44 |
9/18/2009 12:13:55 PM
...just an FYI...
Negative (ie. Bearish) Divergences are very common in strongly trending (UP) markets...just as...
Positive (ie. Bullish) Divergences are very common in strongly trending (DOWN) markets !!!
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They are certainly NOT necessarily indicative of a major TOP / BOTTOM !!! imo
Regards,
alf44
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jz166
4 posts
msg #79692
- Ignore jz166 |
9/20/2009 12:48:29 AM
If rsi-2 means RSI(2), then in QLD monthly chart, it has been 99+% since Apr.
Of course unless I miss something....
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alf44
2,025 posts
msg #79695
- Ignore alf44 |
9/20/2009 1:32:25 AM
"jz"...you are exactly correct...you didn't "miss" anything !!!
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And...as I'm sure YOU are aware...and apparently pretty much everyone BUT "M4M"...
...OSCILLATORS CAN REMAIN OVERBOUGHT / OVERSOLD FOR EXTENDED PERIODS !!! DUH !!!
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I'm a fan of RSI(2)...but...it's not a "stand-alone indicator"...observed in a vacuum...as "some" here try to use it !
Oscillators give FALSE signals in strong trends...they perform better in non-trending and sideways markets !
In strong trends, you should be using "trend-following" indicators !
I think they call that Technical Analysis 101 !!! fwiw
Just trying to keep it real !!!
Regards,
alf44
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jz166
4 posts
msg #79697
- Ignore jz166 |
9/20/2009 1:43:42 AM
alf44,
I am new to here, I am reading some old posts from M4M now; and they are pretty good.
M4M's intraday setup is MACD(2,3,1), RSI(2) and Regression(100) on 5 mins chart.
Do you (or someone else) know the buy/sell trigger?
As for market top, I am not sure, but I did reduce my long positions....
good trading!
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jnafach
74 posts
msg #79759
- Ignore jnafach |
9/21/2009 8:56:16 AM
I agree, the monthly still high since april, but we are due for correction and not major change like what happened last year and I think weekly and daily indicater need tr be looked at, the overbought has been for 2 mo from july and before frommarch till may, so wee are having40% drop , but may be 10% or so, if we would wait till the monthly change you will be way far behind the curve
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #79765
- Ignore karennma |
9/21/2009 11:33:06 AM
alf44
- alf44 9/20/2009 1:32:25 AM
"jz"...you are exactly correct...you didn't "miss" anything !!!
...OSCILLATORS CAN REMAIN OVERBOUGHT / OVERSOLD FOR EXTENDED PERIODS !!! DUH !!!
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Amen!
A truth that IS self-evident.
Saddens me to think how much money I lost this summer because I ignored this FACT.
Misinterpreting signals = loss of capital.
:>(
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karennma
8,057 posts
msg #79767
- Ignore karennma |
9/21/2009 11:46:45 AM
jnafach:
I just got an email from SF Support:
"Thank you for the feedback. Monthly indicators are not available with StockFetcher."
So, jnafach, what are you using for "monthly indicators?
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