TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57620 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/5/2007 2:54:16 PM
FOUND THIS ON THE WEB TODAY...
http://dummyspots.com/?page_id=119
What’s A Dummy Spot? (24 Jan 2006)
24 January 2006
My Definition of a Dummy Spot:
A bar or candle having certain characteristics which make it an obvious low-risk entry point into a trade (”so obvious that a dummy could spot it” or “a spot where even a dummy could make money”).
The classic dummy spot is a narrow-range, low-volume inside bar whose break allows you to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend. Sound confusing? It’s actually very simple. See below.
Here’s a beautiful example from just yesterday. One that I completely missed out on, by the way. ;-)
GM chart
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The overall market was rising.
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GM had gapped up on the open by 15 cents (gaps are good, they attract attention), and had wandered sideways/down on fizzling volume.
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The range on the 10:20 EST “inside bar” was from a low of 20.27 to a high of 20.32, just 5 cents.
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The 10:30 inside bar had a range of 20.24 to 20.31, a lower high, so no trade quite yet.
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Then the 10:40 bar broke the high of the 10:30 dummy spot , triggering a trade. Entry would have been just above the high of the 10:30 bar at 20.32, with a stop at the low of the same bar, or 20.24.
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This entry provides a total potential loss of 8 cents. On a 1000-share trade, that would be a total risk of only $80.
The chart tells the rest of the story. With decent money management, you could have gotten a minimum of $21 out of the stock in just a few hours, and potentially much more. Even if you sold at $21 at 1pm, you’d have made $680 from an $80 risk in under 3 hours. Or, if you’re a Big Fish with a larger account, that would be $6800 on an $800 risk in 3 hrs. Not a bad return.
The narrow-range bar provides a natural point for setting a tight stop, and entering in the direction of the trend places you on the side of probability. The ideal trade setup. From there, your position sizing and money management rules take over.
More About Dummy Spots
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Dummy Spots occur in all time frames, from one-minute bars to daily or even weekly bars. Most traders tend to use 5-minute to 60-minute bars, as those show the best daytrade setups. The 5-min bars can give more false signals, and not much time for evaluation; you often have to trade within a matter of seconds. I’ll occasionally use the 5’s, but only in very specific situations. I usualy stick to 10, 15 and 30-minute bars. They give fewer false signals, and are much easier on the nerves. Every evening I look for possible swing-trade setups using daily bars.
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Dummy Spots occur many times every day. The difficulty in catching them is not unlike hunting- you have to be at the right place at the right time, know exactly what you’re watching for, and be ready to pull the trigger when the time comes.
So there you have it- “Dummy Spots” is just a name for a specific kind of trading setup. That’s why I chose it for a domain name, but since I’ve had the site up, I’ve heard many other interpretations: “the spot for dummies,” “trades that a dummy (me) spotted,” alternative to “stock spots,” etc.
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fokane 74 posts msg #57632 - Ignore fokane |
12/5/2007 4:37:19 PM
This is also a must-read:
http://dummyspots.com/2006/11/it-aint-so-easy/
:-)
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TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57647 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
12/5/2007 7:37:06 PM
Let's see if I can spot a dummy...LOL!
Notice the plot TIGHT... see what happens after it hits a high.
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TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57649 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
12/5/2007 7:50:34 PM
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miketranz 961 posts msg #57658 - Ignore miketranz |
12/5/2007 10:33:44 PM
Not a bad play on a risk/reward basis.The only problem is in real time,most "dummys",including myself especially,won't honor the stop no matter where it is.One of the hardest things to do as a trader,is learn how to scratch a trade.Its not what setup you're trading,its how you're trading the setup..........
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TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #57666 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/6/2007 12:45:47 AM
"Its not what setup you're trading,its how you're trading the setup.......... "
Dang that sounds kind of familiar!!
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chetron 2,817 posts msg #57676 - Ignore chetron modified |
12/6/2007 7:02:04 AM
FOR THE BASIC FOLKS....
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chetron 2,817 posts msg #69568 - Ignore chetron |
12/4/2008 10:51:15 PM
POP
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alf44 2,025 posts msg #69584 - Ignore alf44 |
12/5/2008 11:04:19 AM
"Dummy Spots" are Inside Days !
"Inside Days" represent "Range Contraction" !
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Now where have I heard ..."Range Contraction" ?
Ahhhh....yes...I remember !!!
Regards,
alf44
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chetron 2,817 posts msg #69585 - Ignore chetron |
12/5/2008 11:16:36 AM
same cat, different knife
the dummy spot pick up a few that your scan missed the other day. fwiw
hth
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