| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · The quick pick (or:get in today, out tomorrow) | << 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 >>Post Follow-up |
| 13th_floor 724 posts msg #63259 - Ignore 13th_floor modified |
6/2/2008 7:30:19 PM Not too bad I thought. I'd like the smart guys to have a look at it: it almost seems too good to be trough. Regards, Ludo Willems xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx No not to good to be true.Nice work Ludo As I said any red candle at or out of the UBB is a sign of bad things to come. RED FLOATERS KILL! Here's the list of 19 I posted on Muddy's blog yesterday: http://greenonthescreen.blogspot.com/2008/06/im-gonna-try.html WTSLA UFS CWTR COCO CKR CMGI SINO SCS NSIT STSI HRZ RDEN ITI TRMP PCSV SMRT MMSI CYBX TMM 2 managed to ekk out green! Watch them fall the coming week. As I said I'll trade this short against anyone with confidence. |
| hraghav 12 posts msg #63274 - Ignore hraghav |
6/2/2008 9:42:37 PM 13th/Ludo/chetron: what is the best strategy to trade these? plain stock short, buying puts etc. The reason I ask is that -- historically speaking -- some of the drops are not that fantastic to justify puts. Any thoughts? Thanks for all your great work, btw :) |
| ludowillems 111 posts msg #63323 - Ignore ludowillems |
6/4/2008 7:29:32 AM hraghav, I can only speak for myself: i trade CFD's (contract for difference, a leveraged product at Saxobank.com) and therefore i use that kind of trading. The average leverage beeing 10 or so, I am quite happy with a 2-3% profit (which turns into 20-30%). LudoWillems |
| ludowillems 111 posts msg #63489 - Ignore ludowillems |
6/8/2008 4:42:43 PM Hello all, I made some changes to the backtesting of my filter (with thanks to chetron for his advice): I added the exit condition:" open is at least 3% above close of 1 day ago": this exits the position if the price goes up i.e. the wrong way. Second exit condition is:"low is below lower bollinger(20;2.0)". Third condition:"Selection Method: select by MONEY FLOW INDEX descending" In my simple mind, stocks that had a huge flow of money coming in, will see a lot of money flowing out, once people start to take profits.Finally,:"Maximum Trades Per Day:10 Maximum Open Positions:5 Maximum Selected Stocks:50" These because i trade CFD's , with leverage 10, and having only a small trading account. That's it. I ran a backtest with rather astonishing results: Date 6/8/2008 End 5/30/2008 Win(%) 88% Lose(%) 12% W/L 7.50:1 Reward/Risk: 28.35/1 ROI(%): 82.62 Will a finally get rich??? :) Here is the format of my backtest, so you can check for yourself: Basic Setup Name: bb short Approach Type: Short Start Date: 01/30/2008 End Date: 05/30/2008 Benchmark Symbol: ^SPX Exit Setup Stop Loss: N/A Profit Stop: N/A Trailing Stop Loss: N/A Minimum Holding Days: N/A Maximum holding days: 50 Exit Trigger #1: open is at least 3% above close of 1 day ago Exit Trigger #2: low is below lower bollinger(20;2.0) Extra Indicators Entry Columns: Show Performance After: after 2 days after 5 days after 10 days after 25 days after 40 days Advanced Options Selection Method: select by MONEY FLOW INDEX descending Entry Price: open is below close of yesterday Conditional Entry: No Exit Price: close Maximum Trades Per Day: 10 Maximum Open Positions: 5 Maximum Selected Stocks: 50 Request to the mathematicians/statisticians/ smart brains among you: Is it correct to assume that with this filter, if I enter a 100 trades, i will make money 88 times, and lose only 12 times? And if yes, is this a linear result: will each profit/loss will be an equal amount?? Please tell me it's true, so i can tell my boss to etc.etc. :) Have a nice work- and trading week. Ludo Willems |
| billrider321 70 posts msg #66619 - Ignore billrider321 |
8/24/2008 5:31:08 PM hi there is any one one working on this..how has this filter worked. I am trying to test seems like we dont need the 3 day agao filter. |
| ludowillems 111 posts msg #66643 - Ignore ludowillems |
8/25/2008 3:06:27 PM Hello again, Still alive but not very active in the market. I'll give my filter another go and try to tweak it with all the knowledge i gathered from the guys with brains inhere. I'd love to include some of the Dr. Elder ideas, as well as the pop-scanner and RunForrestRun ideas etc etc. Who dares? regards, Ludo |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #66648 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
8/25/2008 4:13:49 PM TWEAK A FILTER? Don't was your time. Just trade ONE of the top RUN FOREST, RUN stocks and you'll make 2% or more per day. AND TRADE THE SAME STOCK EVERY DAY FOR AT LEAST 4 WEEKS. That way you'll learn to time your entry and exit rather than waste time looking for the "Stock of the Day". ABK and RDN have been paying off nicely. SCA, PMI, LCC and ROYL, too. JUST PICK ONE, ANY ONE. |
| campbellb75 101 posts msg #66654 - Ignore campbellb75 |
8/25/2008 7:44:02 PM TRO- Which Run Forest Run do you recommend or like the best? How did you make 2% a day with ABK and RDN...short or long? Thanks! |
| TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #66656 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
8/25/2008 8:20:42 PM Which filter? There really is only one RUN FOREST, RUN filter. Look at Post #1 for the main ones. The RUN FOREST, RUN filter computes the statistics and then you decide just how greedy you want to be by selecting stocks based on how many days were X% or better from open to high over the last 100 days. I like stocks that have run up 10% or more over 15 times in the past 100 days. Then I look at the volume. SPF was my fav for a long time until it "dried up". We must have wore it out...LOL! Now ABK and RDN are the ones I trade. But SCA, ROYL, LCC, etc.. all have nice returns. After you select your stock, use the TRAVEL GUIDE Filter Display that I wrote and put your stock in the symlist. Then you will know what to expect in terms of average run up, pull back, drop and bounce. I like to use the bounce play... It will drop X and then bounce Y. Many times the drop happens before the 10% or better POP. I got my 10% plus out of ABK today but I blew it on RDN. I sold way too cheap!! Funny thing is I HATE NYSE stocks when it comes to daytrading so this gives me a chance to "stick it" to the specialist. My advise is to pick ONE of these stocks and trade it for at least 4 WEEKS. Do NOT even look at another stock or chart. FOCUS ALL OF YOUR ATTENTION ON ONE STOCK. At the end of the 4 weeks, you might not ever want to look at another stock. I never short RFR stocks. But that doesn't mean you can't make a ton of money shorting them. |
| campbellb75 101 posts msg #66665 - Ignore campbellb75 |
8/25/2008 11:37:08 PM TRO- Thanks for your response and all of the helpful info. As a new subscriber to this site, I've found your filters and posts very insightful. All of the stocks that you mentioned are on my watchlist, but I haven't traded any of them because I couldn't determine to short or buy the ones ABK and RDN. Was trying to find a good pattern...so your filter and explanation really helps. Just so I'm clear, though, is the Travel Guide filter that you referred to the same as the Travel Guide Pocket Edition? I found that when I was searching, but didn't find one just called Travel Guide. I now realize that I would really benefit from reading through this entire Run Forest Run forum. Anyway, I'll do that in a day or so when I have time. Keep up the good work! I'm already using some of your filters and will be looking for more to add when I read more of the posts in these forums. |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · The quick pick (or:get in today, out tomorrow) | << 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 >>Post Follow-up |
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