Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80735
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/6/2009 12:39:01 PM
I understand your comment - all one has to do is look back 1 year from today and see how brutalized stocks can get in a bad downturn.
As to instituting a stop, it makes sense. I just haven't figured out what % (and how to test it, except to paper trade for a while and see).
I still think that on the whole you will see a much higher return over one year trading this system than a lot of others. I'm in the process of testing this - I'm running the filter backwards using offsets, and looking at the top 3 picks for each week. They vary from week to week, so this is the only way to be sure that you are modeling the system propoerly. Did they hit their 3% target? If not, what was the loss incurred by the close on Friday?
Once it is complete, I'll share it in another post to this thread.
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tradewiz
7 posts
msg #81709
- Ignore tradewiz |
10/24/2009 11:53:22 PM
hi, kevin
thanks for sharing the filter with us. the stats sure look promising. my question is how do you plan to exit if the target does not hit?
do you exit on friday or plan to use any kind of stop loss? I am also wondering if a stop loss will grealty diminish the effectiveness
of the filter.
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johnp
17 posts
msg #81710
- Ignore johnp |
10/25/2009 2:13:17 AM
Hi Kevin,
I suspect your on the wrong path with the 3% goal. I did some crude optimization involving <= top 6 each week (3 longs and 3 shorts) via papertrading finding what % gave biggest overall gain over time. Results consistantly showed peaks around 2.1% and 5% not 3%. My stop used was close to 10%, and I suspect optimal stop regardless of % goal is >=8%
I too would like to see backtesting issues accurately answered
Perhaps we can work on this jointly here: http://etherpad.com/wDUeU1ybnN
Before posting results in stockfetcher forum
John P. in NV
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #81711
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/25/2009 4:33:40 AM
Please check out this thread as well:
http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?q=view&tid=81139&start=0
Kevin
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