TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #81720
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
10/25/2009 11:52:18 AM
Remember what H. Rearden said:
Now, 2 patterns of market behaviour happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
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"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE
===================
If price is NOT making a new low then it must be reversing from the low.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #81721
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
10/25/2009 12:01:46 PM
GREEN RAT REVERSAL
1) price at/near 5 day low - that is OPPORTUNITY
2) red candle closes
3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.
4) enter long at the green candle's high price
5) STOP LOSS IS BASED ON YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT: STOP LOSS = MAXIMUM RISK / POSITION SIZE
6) Take whatever profit you can.
7) When you hit your daily goal, STOP TRADING FOR THE DAY. Come back tomorrow.
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fortyfour
189 posts
msg #81728
- Ignore fortyfour |
10/25/2009 5:56:25 PM
Good filter.
I am playing with this to suit myself and am trying " reverse > 2.0" and williams(10) < -75 and a day range/volatility requirement that today be a quiet day after a couple/few hard down days.
A couple of sweet spots in TNA within the last few months are good examples of this.
Thanks.
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LebowskiUrbanAchievers
56 posts
msg #81756
- Ignore LebowskiUrbanAchievers |
10/26/2009 9:20:37 AM
How do we read the reversal number. Is it the number of days it has been bouncing around the low? Could be just Monday but I am having trouble analyzing your instructions on the setup filter and the results filter to see what to look for. Any guidance would be appreciated.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #81760
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/26/2009 9:59:02 AM
fortyfour
- Ignore fortyfour 10/25/2009 5:56:25 PM
Good filter.
I am playing with this to suit myself and am trying " reverse > 2.0" and williams(10) < -75 and a day range/volatility requirement that today be a quiet day after a couple/few hard down days.
A couple of sweet spots in TNA within the last few months are good examples of this.
Thanks.
==========================
You should enroll in Yale.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #81761
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
10/26/2009 10:03:19 AM
How do we read the reversal number. Is it the number of days it has been bouncing around the low? Could be just Monday but I am having trouble analyzing your instructions on the setup filter and the results filter to see what to look for. Any guidance would be appreciated.
====================
You don't read it.
It is used to select stocks that are bouncing off the low.
I modified the line to look at stocks at/near the 10 day low within the last 5 days.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #81972
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/28/2009 6:26:20 PM
I added the /* PRICE POSITION PERCENT DISPLAY */ code so you can SEE where price is in relation to the low.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #82489
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
11/5/2009 12:07:08 PM
Anyone having fun making money with this?
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luc1grunt
622 posts
msg #82519
- Ignore luc1grunt |
11/5/2009 6:14:24 PM
Are you Avery? That is the primary importance.
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luc1grunt
622 posts
msg #82520
- Ignore luc1grunt |
11/5/2009 6:15:17 PM
At least it should be. :)
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