Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #109787
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
1/2/2013 10:38:40 AM
Nice day for these filters. Note that all 10 filters are in trades right now. If today's action does not reverse all 10 will be profitable.
The filters are all triggering an exit for today as well. I would suggest exiting before the end of the day given the irrational exuberance of the market. That would signal another 10 winning trades for these guys.
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frsrblch
35 posts
msg #109803
- Ignore frsrblch |
1/2/2013 2:59:16 PM
As a novice trader, I was expecting to need discipline to stay in trades that were down, but I wasn't expecting to need the same discipline to stay in trades once things have gone up! I'm eager to take my money out and secure my profits, but I know that if I get in that habit, I will never see the better trades produced by this system because I will have ejected before those larger profits materialize.
I was in SSO at 59.80 on Dec 27, and I'm staying in until I get that exit signal if it kills me.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #109805
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/2/2013 3:30:21 PM
No one ever lost money taking a profit. I think given the huge gap up today you will be better of selling before the close, but it's your trade.
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frsrblch
35 posts
msg #109808
- Ignore frsrblch
modified |
1/2/2013 4:05:48 PM
SSO went up 0.5 in the last half-hour of the day and my resolve buckled for a 5.5% gain. How ever will I console myself?
Edit: Also, the exit has triggered.
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radiobb2
10 posts
msg #109839
- Ignore radiobb2 |
1/3/2013 10:57:47 PM
New to SF so sorry if this is a dumb question. If you are using the filter to trade SSO, should you be putting SSO in the filter? I tried this and you get slightly different signals.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #109842
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/4/2013 7:58:36 AM
The filter was developed using ^SPX as the trading instrument. To trade it I use SPY as the proxy. You can use SSO (I have done this as well) to try to boost your profitability, but the signals are generated from SPY.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #110057
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/10/2013 7:11:28 PM
As of today there were 4 active trades ongoing before the exit signal was trigggered at the close today (^SPX closed at 1472.12).
01/08/2013 RSI Divergence
01/08/2013 WLR(14) Divergence
01/08/2013 QST Divergence
01/09/2013 RMI Divergence
The three trades entered into on 01/08/2013 (^SPX opened at 1461.89) are at 0.70% gain, while the one entered on 01/09/2013 (^SPX opend at 1457.15) is now at 1.03% gain.
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voidcomp
23 posts
msg #110690
- Ignore voidcomp |
1/29/2013 3:20:12 PM
Textbook case of a strong trending market that makes divergence trading less effective than trend indicators during circumstances like this. The positive slope of price action remains persistent while many of the indicators, mostly oscillators, sloped negatively, triggering premature sell signals (so far).
Classic example also of how oscillators can remain overbought/oversold for extended trending markets. Not until the market falters somewhat will buy signals kick in.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #110710
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/29/2013 9:43:56 PM
Less effective? That is an opinion lacking substantive data and backtesting to support it.
In fact, since 12/6 there have been 50 trades entered and closed using these filters. The results?
50 wins, 0 losses
Average gain of 0.90%
Average holding time of 4.3 days
At the risk of appearing defensive, I'll request that you perform a similar backtest on any trending system you have and post the results. The numbers will speak for themselves.
Kevin
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duke56468
683 posts
msg #110726
- Ignore duke56468 |
1/30/2013 8:35:09 AM
voidcomp.......You are describing the normal type of divergence trading. As Kevin mentioned on page one about his filter "This seems counter-intuitive, since that is called a "negative divergence" and is often associated with a short-term price reversal rather than a gain." I think of this filter more as contrarian, and very effective.
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