Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #113137
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
5/5/2013 2:03:20 PM
Systems are never 100% accurate - nothing is. My decision to step outside of this month's signal is a personal one that may simply remind me that my gut instinct is no good.
My analogy might be that you are a coach and have a great pitcher, but one that always seems to let A-Rod hit a homer off of him. Doesn't matter how good he is against other batters, A-Rod always seems to make him regret throwing the ball.
As a coach, what do you do? Tell him to throw hard, or walk him? Sometimes you just have to look at patterns within patterns and take the safer option.
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dtatu
143 posts
msg #113169
- Ignore dtatu |
5/7/2013 9:38:13 AM
You're right, Kevin: systems are,indeed, never 100% accurate...Humans are much less,though. And, what usually happens is that when you finally decide to go back to the system you'll maybe hit the worst month of the year?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #113173
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
5/7/2013 10:16:00 AM
Possibly. Time will tell.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #113388
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
5/14/2013 12:52:42 PM
Well - I have missed out on about 3.5% of returns so far. Arrgh. However, the month is only half over. I would rather see it stay up than go down, since I do not make money either way as I am sitting in a Stable Value fund this month. Good luck to everyone here.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #113400
- Ignore gmg733 |
5/14/2013 7:58:28 PM
Don't feel bad, I got out a week before you did. My only saving grace is I've been long some xlu for a little profit.
Misery loves company. :)
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dtatu
143 posts
msg #114104
- Ignore dtatu |
6/15/2013 12:06:57 AM
Yes, you should feel bad !!
Solidarity in stupid decisions and stupid losses, this is what conforts you?
You put together a simple and , what seems to be, a profitable system and you are not even able to follow it step by step? Yes, you should feel bad !
A profitable system is a SUM of wins and losses with a positive (profitable) outcome. The losse are part of the system ! You take them ALL or you are OUT of your system and you lost your time since 2010 in this Forum...
Actually , this Forum seems to be lead by an Academic of systems- unable to pull the trigger himself in real time, and a bunch of losers , who are unable to...anything !
I'm out, but I should thank Kevin for his idea, which I took as a basis to some very profitable, sytematic, disciplined trading on etfreplay.But I do trade them ALL and take the losses and wins, as they are BOTH essential !
Maybe one day you'll get it...
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jimmyjazz
102 posts
msg #114105
- Ignore jimmyjazz |
6/15/2013 9:32:23 AM
Somebody needs to look into decaf. Yeesh.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #114106
- Ignore gmg733 |
6/15/2013 10:01:16 AM
Hehe. Blah blah blah. Hey look at me, I took someone's work and I'm making money, but your an idiot. Too funny. All from a guy who shared absolutely nothing on the forum. Best of luck to Dan.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #114107
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
6/15/2013 10:11:29 AM
I think this guy simply doesn't understand how to provide constructive feedback (hint: it doesn't start off with calling folks stupid).
As to my decision to exit in May (I'm still in a Stable Value fund this month as well), my unrealized gain is only about 1.5% versus taking the system trades mechanically. The current call is IWM and the month is only half over, so by the end of the month either I am better off or worse. Either way it's my call and my money.
If you are making money using a variant of this, good for you and good luck in the future. This approach will help people succeed even if they don't follow it religiously.
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jimmyjazz
102 posts
msg #114124
- Ignore jimmyjazz |
6/17/2013 3:09:31 PM
Kevin, are you familiar with the Cambria TAA ETF (GTAA)? It hasn't exactly set the world on fire (save ~ 2.5% annual dividend yield) since inception. Any idea why?
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