skymuse
14 posts
msg #64743
- Ignore skymuse |
7/5/2008 11:12:25 PM
I'm playing around with stocks that are beat down but strong and looking likely to recover fairly quickly, at least for 10% or so over the next couple of weeks.
Just wanted to know if anyone here can improve on it, especially if this is missing or confusing something.....
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ludowillems
111 posts
msg #64749
- Ignore ludowillems |
7/6/2008 2:08:31 PM
Skymuse, any particular reason for "price<35" ? I ran the filter and noticed that on every chart the stoch. was >75 and crossing downwards. So it looks like this filter finds stocks to short?? Regards, Ludo
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skymuse
14 posts
msg #64752
- Ignore skymuse |
7/6/2008 4:21:56 PM
I chose "close < 35" because that's the range I trade in; nothing more -- make it whatever range you want. My style is basically mutated momentum, so it's far easier to make my 10% gains when the stock doesn't have to go up more than $3.50. Nothing sucks worse than buying an $80 stock knowing it has to rise $8/share in my 10-day range. Lower price also lets me purchase more shares, which drives the overall target downward as well. As always, to each his own.....
Re stoch: not sure which one you're looking at. I guess my answer would be that if the stoch is dipping below 75, it's looking less overbought (?). The filter is not intentionally ( :-) designed to find shorts, but maybe it does -- this is my first attempt at tying together indicators on this level. My backtesting gives me 60%+ success rates going short-term long, though:
Win(%) 80%
Lose(%) 20%
W/L Ratio 4.00:1
Reward/Risk 3.47
ROI(%) 66.23%
The design here is to find strong stocks that have been floating near their bottom for awhile and have started moving back up over the last 4-5 days. My purpose with this filter is to miss the initial pull-up (and likely headfake) until accumulation has set in and it's ready to move up again for real.
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cunparis
71 posts
msg #64763
- Ignore cunparis |
7/7/2008 3:40:30 AM
I'm curious how you've set up the backtesting, because when I try it I get negative results. I'm not very good at this backtesting and all the combinations, it seems every time I add a stop loss I screw up the results. But I'm very curious how this is working out for you. For me it'd make more money on the short side, which is usually the case with the strategies I've been testing.
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skymuse
14 posts
msg #64773
- Ignore skymuse |
7/7/2008 10:19:16 PM
Re backtesting:
I set mine like this:
9% profit margin (my scalping style aims low -- you'd be amazed at how often that last 1% won't be there to make an even 10%.....)
25% stop-loss (just a high number so the trigger rarely trips)
no trailing stop
entry on low (not open -- matches my personal pattern)
exit on high (not open -- matches my personal pattern)
this sets up for a more forgiving rate that is more in line with my real-world approach. It works for me because I foolishly don't use stop-losses; I just grit my teeth and ride it out -- none of my trades has ever not at least returned to my original entry, so no losses as of yet.....*knocking on wood*
I also don't buy or sell at open - ever; I prefer to let the madness of the first couple of hours pass so I can get a better price either way, or even get out of the way entirely if the post-open gets weird.
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