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| ryboflavin 3 posts msg #38971 - Ignore ryboflavin |
11/19/2005 9:09:30 PM Hey traders, I've been trading for about 6 months now and have not made a dime. I haven't lost any either, so that's a plus. This site is exactly what I've been looking for, so I joined about a week ago. I've been backtesting my filters and some that are posted with pretty good results. My rookie question is: What signals should I be looking for the next day before I pull the trigger? A higher open and higher high? RC |
| judgetrade 107 posts msg #38975 - Ignore judgetrade |
11/20/2005 10:06:25 AM ryboflavin, that is a big plus! Be careful back testing. The back testing machine does not give real results. You need liquidity, for example. Bid ask spread and so on. In certain screens it calculates wrongly (entry one or two days later then the screen). Nevertheless: This site can make you very successful, if you are willing to put in a lot of work. Specialize on one robust trading principles (for example momentum or reversal). I personally test every screen that pops up in the forum which is based on reversal (basically you are buying panic and short term overreaction). Special thanks to the TheRumpledOne, who pointed me to Rsi(2) < 1 (principle Reversal) and all its screen combinations. Thank you for the rest of the team as well. If you have found a good filter, then built you strategy: Bet size optimization: I always bet the same amount, and reinvest 50% of my winnings (so the bet size grows slowly). I hold for 3-4 Days (good for reversal strats). I do not wait for green [search the forum to get explanation], the more the stock lost the better. I do not average down. I do not use stops (only do this if you bet very, very small, the bet size is the maximum amount I want to loose, so I use an "internal" stop through the small bet size). I take every trade of my screens, which gives one or two trades a day, if I got more, I divide a maximum bet size of the day and get the amount per trade. I do not care about news, I do not care about technical (the worse the chart looks intuitively, the better the chances, it has to look very ugly). I realize 65% winners and made about 50% Performance since End of July this year. I Invested about 14.000 Hours of work (which was fun to me) since 1996, was very successful from 1996-2001, Survived and now I am back on track since Autumn 2004. I tried full time, did not work our, I work during the day, during the evening I trade (best combination for me, I am not afraid to loose money, if you are, you will definitly loose it). Do bet very small in the beginning until you are profitable for a year or so! THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH; WORK; WORK; WORK! Best Regards Andreas Alias Judgejimmy! P.S. Have a nice Sunday :-) |
| Koronbock 201 posts msg #38976 - Ignore Koronbock |
11/20/2005 11:14:41 AM Ryboflavin, do you have anything to do with "Vitamin B 2) ? Because that is your alias. Judge gave you some good advice already. I should add, read the old messages here on the board, especially from the old PROs (like the RumpledOne or Cegis). Judge already warned you to overestimate a good "backtest result". Agood backtest result is a necessary requirement, but in no means enough (for me) to start believing the neumbers or even start trading my own hard earned money based on "great numbers" from SF. I have made it it a routine to test every "good filter result" with an external program (I am using AMIBROKER for that) and have often come to VERY different results. SFs backtesting engine IS LIMITED, so be careful. Slippage and liquidity do not show for tomorrows entry, for example. There are some wild filters out there, who fall apart in real time trading. Look at the thread "Can anyone beat this filter" (do a search for this topic) and you will get some good info and good advice how to avoid the major traps of SF backtesting. Apparently "bigger is not always better" (lol). Good luck. |
| shelupinin 120 posts msg #38977 - Ignore shelupinin |
11/20/2005 1:02:17 PM ryboflavin, I was an author of thread "Can anyone beat this filter" which Koronbock mentioned and I reaaly advice you to read this thread couple of times to see that backtesting results are not the same as real life and money in your pocket, I also advise you to read my other thread "psychological problems after loose" to prevent you from same mistakes.... it's good that you don't loose money while trading.... even if backtesting results are correct there is no filter which shows stable results over and over again, may be you have 500% ROI filter, but it does'nt mean that your performance will be 500/12 months by month, you may start to trade at "bad" phase of market and you'll have sevaral consecutive looses... so decide by yourself how much money you ready to loose and don't bother until you reach this limit... and read SF forums, create you own filters, backtest them, think of filters and work, work, work... Alex |
| shelupinin 120 posts msg #38978 - Ignore shelupinin |
11/20/2005 1:08:34 PM ryboflavin, you asked "What signals should I be looking for the next day before I pull the trigger?", just a little info from me, I use http://www.tradingday.com/c/afterhourstrading/pmpg.html to see pre-market gainers and data.inetats.com to see what is genaral market approach to some stock ... Alex |
| ryboflavin 3 posts msg #38980 - Ignore ryboflavin |
11/20/2005 3:25:43 PM Hey all, Thanks for the advice! It's great to see that newbies get some love around here. Work, work, work. I am definitely one to put in the work but I still feel like I am not getting it. In the past 6 months I've highlighted about 5 books on the stock market taken books of notes on various financial shows and nearly exploded my head the past few days backtesting. I understand that the backtest results can be misleading but for some reason I find it's rare to come up with a positive ROI. I've tried about 10 of the "amazing " filters posted on this forum and usually come up with a loss. Why is that? I've tried all different combinations of stop profit, stop loss, days held etc. The best ROI I could come up with was with Jim Hill's Stocks for a week (42% ROI) I really like the advice from TheRumpledOne and would love to be able to utilize his "Basic filter for Newbies (that's me) and old pros". I can't get it give me a positive result though. That's why I was asking about conditional entries. I have noticed that stocks that could make me money usually cross the high from the previous (trigger) day. I did find the thread discussing "go on green" but can't find a description of what it actually means. I would love it if someone could give me a basic explanation of what it means and point me to a basic filter that favors best of breed stocks with 4-10 day moves. FYI this week is historically a rocking time to be in the market and there seems to be a ravenous bullish sentiment out there. I hope you all have a fat and happy thanksgiving! Again, I really appreciate y'all taking time to help me out. I had a funny thought last night. I was thinking that I would be willing to pay for a trading tutor but money it probably the last thing a successful trader needs. Ha! ryboflavin |
| ryboflavin 3 posts msg #38981 - Ignore ryboflavin |
11/20/2005 4:18:49 PM OK i found the "wait for green" concept. TheRumpledOne wrote "If the price of the stock holds above the previous close then it is green. What could be simpler?" sounds easy enough. I guess because I work for a living I would just check the price action near the end of the trading day and buy before close. Am I on the right track here? ryboflavin |
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