snappyfrog
731 posts
msg #142522
- Ignore snappyfrog |
3/1/2018 9:13:12 AM
Any thoughts, additions or comments welcome.
Trying to eliminate head fakes after the MACD Fast Line has hit a 52 week low.
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jimvin
173 posts
msg #142693
- Ignore jimvin |
3/9/2018 10:27:03 PM
Since "thoughts" were called for (a neutral evaluation requiring neither common sense nor deep intelligence) I'll toss mine in as a kick=start to the conversation.
Of the overlays/indicators I prefer here's the score:
Sharpe Ratio: Catastrophic failure on all but one pick in the roster for Monday
Force Index (FI2): High passing grade on many (both numbers and charts)
Wkprofitpcnt: Mixed; majority low but some high points to consider
drsi4/drsi9: All winners
dma_x_1over8: Very low score on all
Much of the value of the above (if any) will depend on how the individual user prefers to weigh the overlay/indicators...or simply the empirical results of applying them to the script and tracking the outcome for a few weeks.
Additionally, I would add the old Darvas' criteria of a 30-day average of 300,000 and a minimum 30-day closing average of 3, making the stock easier to unload when so desired.
,,,but what the heck do I know? Simply a reply to some requested "thoughts."
jm.v.
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nibor100
1,048 posts
msg #142700
- Ignore nibor100 |
3/10/2018 2:03:10 PM
@jimvin,
I've read 3 of Nicolas Darvas' books and I'm not familiar with him ever stating anything about having a
" Darvas' criteria of a 30-day average of 300,000 and a minimum 30-day closing average of 3,"
Could you provide a source or reference for that info you cited?
Or perhaps it is a different Darvas?
Thanks,
Ed S.
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jimvin
173 posts
msg #142701
- Ignore jimvin |
3/10/2018 2:48:51 PM
I've been through his formal "rules" and those don't appear in his listings as as hard and fast in his texts (How I made $2,000,000, You Can Still Make It, etc.) ; they were extrapolated by a third-party examining his trading patterns. Sorry, but unfortunately, it was years ago that I ran across them and I don't recall the source of the analysis. I can,however, note that they're worked very well in my trading. If I can find the source somewhere iny files I'll post it - .
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nibor100
1,048 posts
msg #142746
- Ignore nibor100 |
3/13/2018 2:07:24 PM
@jimvin,
From his first book, indications were for most of the stocks that made up his run to $2M, Darvas actually was buying stocks with very low average Weekly volumes whose volume then had a large increase simultaneous with the stock moving to new all time highs.
Three examples from his book:
Lorillard
first week of Oct moved from 17, to narrow box 24/27 its volume for the week of 126,700 vs usual 10,000 shares
Diners club
weekly volume swelled to unusuallly high 23,400 shares which I considered unusually high for this stock
E.L.BRUCE
weekly volume climbed to 19,500 from usual 5,000, then 41,500, 54,200, 76,500 with price jumping 5 to 8 points weekly
I believe Darvas used weekly volumes because on his dance tours he only got Barron's once a week to do his stock research.
At the end of that first Darvas book there are weekly price and volume charts for all of his big successful stock buys; and in 2 of the latest editions of "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O'neil, there are weekly charts of many of those same stocks.
Ed S.
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