Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78033
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/26/2009 9:29:49 PM
Still seeing different results. From 8/24/2007 until now I count 336 completed trades (not sure how many open ones were left). I determined this by downloading EVERY trade into excel from my 4 month rolling windows, and then manually deleting all duplicate closed trades.
Rather than post every trade - as I am guessing that this thread is becoming too long and boring for most everybody else - here's what I see:
Of 336 trades completed, 257 are profitable (76.5%). Average profit on all trades was 11.06%.
Well Chet, I appreciate your willingness to help me figure this one out. I am going to give this a shot with real money, but will probably select stocks with an IBD rating of 90 or higher. I have a list of roughly 400 that they have rated, and this will become my trading universe for a while.
Thanks again. Keep posting filters - I love to see how you put these together.
Kevin
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #78037
- Ignore Eman93 |
8/26/2009 10:15:50 PM
Kevin keep us posted...would like to see how this is working.
Not boring at all............keep up the good work.
I really would like to swing trade more....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78043
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/26/2009 11:16:06 PM
I set up a few watchlists using the IBD stocks. Here is a quick test, comparing the standard MACD(12,26,9) with the BB(16,2.5) strategy (done on all stocks, then against the IBD list):
BOLLINGER BAND(16,2.5) IBD STOCKS 10/21/2008 2/20/2009 76% 24% 3.25:1 8.57 236.93%
BOLLINGER BAND(16,2.5) ALL STOCKS 10/21/2008 2/20/2009 61% 39% 1.58:1 3.91 56.50%
MACD(12,26,9) 10/21/2008 2/20/2009 41% 59% 0.71:1 0.56 -37.33%
As you can see, pre-selecting a set of "good" stocks for this approach seems to make a difference. I chose this timeframe because it was a horrible time to own stocks - no March rally to make the numbers look good.
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Eman93
4,750 posts
msg #78044
- Ignore Eman93
modified |
8/26/2009 11:56:02 PM
Nice!!! How are you getting ibd 400 I can only down load the top 100? hand entering?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78050
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/27/2009 6:42:17 AM
Yes. I picked up yesterday's IBD and went through it, entering into a txt file any stock rated 90 or higher. I have 3 watchlists filled up and then decided to stop. That's probably enough.
Anyone who wants these, I'll post them in a separate thread later today.
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TraderZap
3 posts
msg #78389
- Ignore TraderZap |
8/31/2009 8:29:19 PM
Kevin,
Are you still using the IBD stocks as a watch list to run the MACD against? Wondering how it is working out. I subscribe to IBD and know their IBD 100 stocks are always good to keep an eye on.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78391
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/31/2009 8:49:49 PM
Not MACD anymore. I was trading the Proshares 2x ETFs on their MACDs, not the IBD stocks.
For the IBD list (posted in a separate thread here) I am using the following filter
BUY when the stock closes below the lower Bollinger Band(16,2.5). SELL when it closes above the upper Bollinger Band(16,2.5).
Seems to work pretty well - average hold time is 56 days. Average % profitable is 80%. Average profit per tyrade is 9.25% before commissions.
Using the IBD stocks and this screen since 4/31/09, it was profitable in 41 out of 42 trades (97.5%).
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78392
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/31/2009 8:51:23 PM
Here is the list of IBD stocks rated 90 or higher (about 580 in total)
http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/?q=view&fid=1001&tid=78056&qrid=
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VenturaTrader
43 posts
msg #78479
- Ignore VenturaTrader |
9/1/2009 10:14:20 PM
Hey Kevin,
Your threads are definitely not boring; your willingness to share is appreciated! I'm can't day trade either, so your strategies are valuable to me.
While reading this thread, I too was wondering if you abandoned the MACD (2,3,9) crossover strategy discussed in the "most reliable short term indicator" thread? It seems the method using your sym list of ETFs would result in fewer trades and less surprise volatility. If you quit this method is there a reason? You appeared to be quite successful with it; I was in the process of starting to set up to paper trade it.
Your newer BB filter has a good record too using the IBD stocks. Which of the two methods do you prefer and have had the most success using?
Mike
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #78480
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/1/2009 10:25:31 PM
My belief in the MACD is from tracking the Proshares ETFs - they trade quite nicely off several different timings (the standard daily(12,26,9), weekly(2,3,9), and even my original weekly(8,10,6)).
Recently I have been caught in whipsaws because this stupid market will not go back down - just up and up. Therefore, any pause is seen by the MACD as a reversal, and I get burned.
What I began looking for was a trading system that was not so dependent on oscillation and prior performance. There have been lots of discussions about how the Bollinger Bands act as support and resistance levels for a given stock, so I looked at what happens when the price pierces or closes below them. In most cases, there is a bounce off the outer band back toward the centerline.
Closes above or below the BBs are relatively uncommon, and therefore seemed like a good entry signal in that they do not occur too frequently and they usually snap back quickly.
When I ran a side-by-side test on both systems using the ETFs, and then again with the IBD stocks, the BB method won handily. The MACD method was still profitable, but the BB method was simply better.
I'll post the comparison for each set of stocks for your review.
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