SAFeTRADE
644 posts
msg #146009
- Ignore SAFeTRADE |
1/12/2019 1:19:32 PM
Kudos to Kevin coding and idea, wish he was still here.
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ron22
255 posts
msg #146021
- Ignore ron22 |
1/12/2019 10:02:58 PM
SaFeTRADE, This is an interesting filter by Kevin. The buy signals are on the chart. What do you use for your exit trigger? Thank you. Ron
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SAFeTRADE
644 posts
msg #146024
- Ignore SAFeTRADE |
1/13/2019 7:24:20 AM
close below the 8 EMA would work.
Peace
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ron22
255 posts
msg #146025
- Ignore ron22 |
1/13/2019 7:58:28 AM
SaFeTRADE, Thanks a lot.
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shillllihs
6,044 posts
msg #146030
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/13/2019 4:35:05 PM
Ron, you can play Tqqq and Sqqq and simply exit on opposites buy signal.
Works well until you have a bearish trend reversal. Completely fell apart last couple of months.
Like all of Kevin’s filters as with any other, they are flawed. There is no free lunch.
90% win rates don’t mean a thing if the 10% is catastrophic, unless you can mitigate those 10% losses.
Plenty of gamblers out here with smiling faces, buyer beware.
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ron22
255 posts
msg #146031
- Ignore ron22 |
1/13/2019 5:25:19 PM
Thanks Shills. I will check out SQQQ and TQQQ with understanding that drawdowns can be very large. Ron
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ron22
255 posts
msg #146037
- Ignore ron22 |
1/13/2019 11:01:16 PM
Shills, I did some manual back testing on playing TQQQ and SQQQ with exiting on opposites buy signal. Buy signal for TQQQ on 10/5/18 resulted in a buy at open on 10/8 at $63.84. This entry is still open. Low of $32.00 on 12/24/18. TQQQ at $41.49 at close on 1/11/19. 3 month hold and still at 35% Drawdown.
Maybe a 10% stop loss would improve the results.
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shillllihs
6,044 posts
msg #146038
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/14/2019 7:14:16 AM
That could help, or have a sell zone slightly below candle or something, then getting back in if it rises back above before next opposing buy signal. It’s a lot of maintenance. Maybe you can manually check how profitable this has been over the last 3 years or so.
Ps. On second thought stops and zones are stupid because you just don’t know how many times you will get stopped out if you want to get back in. Ideally you want to have several slightly profitable uncorrelated 90%+ systems of which you only invest a small amount of cash in, and or reduce your cost basis.
I’ve always relied on my instincts in these matters but it would be nice to see a thread filled with verifiable profitable 90% winners, and I’m not talking about freaky short systems.
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ron22
255 posts
msg #146040
- Ignore ron22 |
1/14/2019 8:14:08 AM
Larry Connors did several multi-year back tests on various systems. He found that usually stops actually reduced profits. Right or wrong, stops just make me feel safer. I hate 30-50% drawdowns even if my entry is a small cash amount.
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KSK8
561 posts
msg #146051
- Ignore KSK8
modified |
1/14/2019 12:54:07 PM
"freaky short systems"
:(
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