\"HIGH PROBABILITY ETF TRADING\" BY LARRY CONNORS - GET YOUR FILTERS HERE!

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · \"HIGH PROBABILITY ETF TRADING\" BY LARRY CONNORS - GET YOUR FILTERS HERE!

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Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #93847 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified	6/14/2010 4:19:07 PM Yeah, you can often see ETFs stay well above 94 on the RSI(2) for extended periods. One could simply change the filter to read "crossed 94 from above" which would be the first day after it began to drop for a (possibly) improved entry on short trades. I did not include the TPS stuff because it is more of a strategy on doubling down, which one cannot really translate into a SF filter. The goal here was to make Connors' strategies easy for anyone to access and quickly review for possible trades. I did make one trade last week off of the composite Long filter - XHB (in at 15.93, out this morning at 16.28 for a 2% gain). I held on one day longer than I should have because of business travel, so I set a profit stop which triggered at the open this morning.
miketranz 961 posts msg #93849 - Ignore miketranz	6/14/2010 9:20:02 PM Kevin,nice work.Have you traded any of these methods? Also,the all in one long filter,can you make it clickable.Thanks,Mike...
four 5,087 posts msg #93850 - Ignore four modified	6/14/2010 9:36:36 PM Kevin Thank you for your time and excellent discussions.
wkloss 231 posts msg #93853 - Ignore wkloss	6/14/2010 10:29:29 PM Kevin, You wrote "Note that in comparing these sets of results, Stockfetcher does not do its backtesting the same way as Connors does - he uses "buy/sell at the close of the day the signal is triggered" while SF uses "buy/sell on the open of the day following the signal being triggered." I think you hit on a very important point here. I subscribed to one of Connors' services and always had trouble trying to determine if I should get in by the close. If I did and then the market moved away from what triggered the signal, I shouldn't have gotten in. If I missed getting in for whatever reason (day job, didn't think this would be an entry or whatever), I was wrong. The concept of predicting and getting in at the close is not only silly, I have heard market professionals suggest the concept is somewhat dishonest. You did it right. You did it the way most people would enter the trade...and BTW You did a great job on all this. Much thanks to you. Bill
pirate67 99 posts msg #93854 - Ignore pirate67	6/14/2010 10:30:51 PM Kevin, Good work, thanks for all you do. I have read three of his books, including this one and my trading has been influenced by them. The problem I have for short term trading is the average winning trade hovers around 1%. The win % is around 70-75%. He has varied exit strategies in his writings. While his methods are 'doable" there still must be ways of using the crux of what he is doing; especially combined with other things that have been presented by SF members in the forums. Let's say we are $5000 per position investor with Ameritrade and each round trip trade costs us $20: For each 12 trades we will expect 8 wins and 4 losses. The wins will get us $50 and even though less defined in Connor's results, the losses will also be 1% or $50. Net win proceeds $400-160 $240 Net losses $200 +$80 $280 Loss on 12 trades $40 The numbers will change with larger investments and lower commissions, but the rewards do not seem to make this alone inviting. His case on ETF trading with .5% average gain is totally not worth doing. I mentioned this to his staff person's follow up call to sell me Connor's $3000 seminar and he said I needed to focus on the double up component bypassing the initial qualifiers; in other words only investing when the second trigger is elicited. What is good about these filters is that you are taking positions in a systemized way with stocks that have pulled back or corrected. Using IBD screened stocks(100 or CanSlim eg) with this seems to work as does other filters and indicators. Different ways of exiting trades to strategically let profits run more than 1% need to be used. Despite my criticism, I have changed my trading approach from getting into a trend and hoping to ride it, to finding a longer positive trend and then trying to find entry points based on oscillators and other things posted in these forums. Like many of us, I am still seeking and testing. Finally, Larry Connor's enterprise never seems to give away a real comprehensive system. He is always holding back something that can be sold separately. When you order a book you will get e-mails and calls to invite you to free webinars introducing you to a $3000 seminar, followed by other offers.He could easily put all his methods in one book, but I ended up buying three books that basically are variations of the same theme of buying stocks that have gone down for awhile. RHB
Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #93867 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA	6/15/2010 9:24:46 AM Mike: Thanks - filter is now clickable. I had to remove all of the comments lines in order for it to work. Odd that this was an issue, but this has happened before. I have traded Connor's filters before - in my previous post I mention my most recent trade on XHB (In Monday 6/7 at 15.93, out Monday 6/14 at 16.28). This was based on the RSI(4) below 25 filter. Note that the composite short filter is reading 14 of 20 ETFs should be shorted, and the only long filter pick is GLD (which to me means short the market as well). However, futures are up at least 0.5% in PreM on all major indices, so I would not enter any short trades until later in the day to see if you can play the bounce to your advantage. This is why sometimes it is better to trade on the open of the following day. +++++++ Four: Thanks for the comments. Like you, I believe in sharing filters when possible. I believe it makes me a better trader, since my stuff is out there for others to review and critique. +++++++ Wkloss: To be honest, SF's delayed data makes it almost a requirement that we trade at the next day, since the filters do not have finalized data until after the close. Besides, you can use the futures info and the premarket bid/ask data to make for a better entry. +++++++ Pirate: I agree entirely. This method works, but you need to make a larger bet because of the 1-2% expected return. Since stop losses are not part of this system, you are leaving yourself more exposed in case of a missed call. Connors would argue that all you need to do is to double down on the next signal (and historically that does improve your odds and overall return) but it can be unnerving for some traders.
cwn6161 40 posts msg #93869 - Ignore cwn6161 modified	6/15/2010 9:54:23 AM Kevin - I got a subscription to tradestation for June to test some of my intraday trading ideas, if you'd like me to test some of these systems with further backtesting data, let me know.
BarTune1 441 posts msg #93896 - Ignore BarTune1	6/16/2010 12:23:16 AM I have traded Connors systems consistently with considerable success. I usually wait until the systems trigger and then enter the following day only if there is a further intraday pullback. This has generally enhanced returns although there are less trades. The systems are pretty solid.
Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #93912 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA	6/16/2010 12:25:01 PM Bartune: Agreed. You originally brought these approaches to my attention - thanks. This is just my way of sharing these approaches with others. The composite short filter is VERY active over the past few days, but the market continues to plow upward - options expiration week plus triple witching?
BarTune1 441 posts msg #93923 - Ignore BarTune1	6/16/2010 6:22:07 PM Yes there have been several short signals the last few days. I am short various stocks and ETFs, hedged against the SPY. Interestingly enough, there is also a VIX variance signal today - three days stretched > 10% below the 10 dma. Despite the slight upwards bias with options expiration week, and the SPY now trading above the 200 dma and dema, I think the probability is for a pullback within the next 5 days. This time next week we will be getting into "window dressing time" I suspect with only a few trading days left for the end of month/quarter. A small pullback here would set up well for a month-end push by the big money players.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · \"HIGH PROBABILITY ETF TRADING\" BY LARRY CONNORS - GET YOUR FILTERS HERE!

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