EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28110
- Ignore EWZuber |
8/27/2003 6:22:26 PM
I was reading about this box theory and thought what if we could find these and pick them up before they broke, rather than wait for the breakout and miss the big move and take on more risk. Here's what I came up with so far;
FIND STOCKS WHERE SLOW STOCHASTICS(5,3)%K IS LESS THAN 50 AND CLOSE IS NEAR 20 DAY HIGH AND CLOSE IS BELOW 20 DAY HIGH AND WEEKLY FAST %K IS INCREASING AND FAST %K IS INCREASING AND PRICE IS BETWEEN 1 AND 15 AND VOLUME(30) IS GREATER THAN 100,000.
I have found that the time to use this filter is at a stochastic cycle bottom on the NASDAQ or DJI. The returns were extremely good when timed with these indexes. This was discovered by testing a 15 back test and these were the results;
Symbol Last %Chg Vol Performance
SWKS - SKYWORKS SOLUTNS 8.75 5.29 3151800 +26.06%
CRIS - Curis, Inc. 3.69 2.50 2097300 -8.40%
PRTL - Primus Telecommunic... 6.14 -2.54 1719100 +27.20%
OCPI - Optical Communicati... 1.92 9.71 603600 +2.60%
LJPC - La Jolla Pharmaceut... 3.09 3.00 449400 +26.54%
SWIR - Sierra Wireless, Inc. 9.62 1.80 441400 -8.21%
MTIX - Micro Therapeutics,... 5.50 9.34 273100 -4.73%
QUIK - QuickLogic Corporation 5.32 1.33 192800 +62.78%
RSTI - Rofin-Sinar Technol... 14.52 2.25 123000 +44.97%
EPEX - Edge Petroleum Corp... 5.44 12.16 104700 +24.26%
Also have plugged in 40 day, 6 month and 52 week highs.
The idea here is to look for stocks that have approached the high and are strong enough that they have not sold off during the last stochastic distribution cycle and have emerged with strength. This puts the price very close to the high and because of this, the stock will spend less strength to reach resistance saving it for the breakout. With weekly and daily chart stochastic cycle in accumulation it adds security and strength to the stocks performance increasing the odds that it will not be held back by resistance at the high.
Any feedback or tweeking is welcome
EWZ
Best of fortune
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #28111
- Ignore jthehut |
8/27/2003 6:38:17 PM
EWZuber:
Your filter intrigues me...I love the idea of getting these stocks BEFORE they take off.
BUT...
I still see that rsi(2) in conjuction with williams %R (and rsi(14) with volume considerations) would get you in before the "take-off" point. Case in point: any of the picks with your filter from Wed close would be better to pick "bottoms". I am going to further back-test your filter and see if it can be tweaked for more optimal usage.
Thanks for sharing your new intriguing idea,
M
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28120
- Ignore EWZuber |
8/28/2003 2:47:57 AM
jthehut, I ran some of those filters tonight and here's what came up, 'near 6 month high filter';
TYC, hit an oversold stochastic bottom on 8/7 at $17.76, 6 Month high is $20.79 formed on 8/22. Todays close was at $20.47. With stochastics rising on both weekly and daily charts the screen did exactly what I was looking for. An almost identical situation with VTSS, MCHP, ICST. I know what you are thinking that because there has been a recent stochastic fast line crossover that this was a bottom. I don't look at it that way because recent lows are well below the current fast line crossovers and in most of these cases, these crossovers have happened in neutral or barely oversold territory near the 6 month high. In view of this maybe the filter could be modified to look for fast line crossovers so one could take advantage of the entire move. What I find exciting though is that these returns seem to be very strong and did not sell off as they approached resistance at the high. It will be interesting to watch them in real time. We are nearing a stochastic fast line crossover on the NASDAQ now, this should be a good test of the screen. As a matter of fact the NASDAQ appears to meet the criteria for the breakout screen. This should be very interesting.
Thanks for your reply, EWZ
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #28121
- Ignore jthehut |
8/28/2003 3:26:29 AM
You're right...(!)...cool.
Looks like resistance meeting could be key, tweaking can help, though, but I'm topo tired to do it now...
Can it be the next "ultimate" filter?!?!?
M
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #28122
- Ignore EWZuber |
8/28/2003 3:45:01 AM
jthehut, I ran some of those filters tonight and here's what came up, 'near 6 month high filter';
TYC, hit an oversold stochastic bottom on 8/7 at $17.76, 6 Month high is $20.79 formed on 8/22. Todays close was at $20.47. With stochastics rising on both weekly and daily charts the screen did exactly what I was looking for. An almost identical situation with VTSS, MCHP, ICST. I know what you are thinking that because there has been a recent stochastic fast line crossover that this was a bottom. I don't look at it that way because recent lows are well below the current fast line crossovers and in most of these cases, these crossovers have happened in neutral or barely oversold territory near the 6 month high. In view of this maybe the filter could be modified to look for fast line crossovers so one could take advantage of the entire move. What I find exciting though is that these returns seem to be very strong and did not sell off as they approached resistance at the high. It will be interesting to watch them in real time. We are nearing a stochastic fast line crossover on the NASDAQ now, this should be a good test of the screen. As a matter of fact the NASDAQ appears to meet the criteria for the breakout screen. This should be very interesting.
Thanks for your reply, EWZ
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txtrapper
548 posts
msg #28143
- Ignore txtrapper |
8/28/2003 9:36:54 PM
I've named you scan "Breakoutz" z for Zuber. I plugged then in this morning and EGLS turned green at $1.94. With all the high volume today I am sure this stock is going to breakout soon! EGLS closed today up $0.08. Good work, txtrapper
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