ramkalyansunder
7 posts
msg #45522
- Ignore ramkalyansunder |
7/7/2006 12:15:11 PM
Rumpledone, I learn lot from your posting. Thank you very much. I need some clarification. Please see example of ISRG
It closed on Jun 2nd at 117.08 and opened at 116.23 on June 5th. High of the day was 116.94. But closed at 109.87. Can you please explain Fading the gap filter for this example.
Thanks in advance.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45525
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
7/7/2006 1:57:49 PM
"It closed on Jun 2nd at 117.08 and opened at 116.23 on June 5th. High of the day was 116.94. But closed at 109.87. Can you please explain Fading the gap filter for this example."
$116.23 is below $117.08, so it GAPPED DOWN.
That means you BUY.
So if you bought at $116.23 and the high was $116.94, there's $.71 of potential profit.
Let's say you bought 1,000 shares and took $.50 profit... that's $500!
$500 gross a day is $125,000 a year if you trade 250 days.
MAY ALL YOUR GAPS BE FILLED!
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45526
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/7/2006 2:08:50 PM
TRO sez:
$116.23 is below $117.08, so it GAPPED DOWN.
That means you BUY.
So if you bought at $116.23 and the high was $116.94, there's $.71 of potential profit.
_________________________
But the question remains as to HOW ure s'pose to have known THAT was the high of the day, namely $116.94. Now that it's clearly printed on the chart, It's easier said than done. But can you bet ure shirt as it unfolds in realtime?
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ramkalyansunder
7 posts
msg #45560
- Ignore ramkalyansunder |
7/8/2006 1:00:27 PM
Thanks Rumpledone
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45563
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
7/8/2006 2:09:55 PM
"But the question remains as to HOW ure s'pose to have known THAT was the high of the day, namely $116.94. Now that it's clearly printed on the chart, It's easier said than done. But can you bet ure shirt as it unfolds in realtime?"
It's the MARKET - NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING!
You have to TRADE.
So, when I trade, I trade when the statistics favor a profitable outcome.
I don't necessarily wait for the gap to fill to take my profit. I take it WHEN I CAN!!
1000 * $.10 = $100!
Do that with 10 stocks that fill the gap 80% of the time and you make $1000 a day.
Simple.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45569
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
7/8/2006 3:13:49 PM
If column Xgapup is 1 then OpLo is the potential profit had you shorted the gap up at the open price.
If column Xgapdn is 1 then HiOp is the potential profit had you bought the gap down at the open price.
See many losers? NO! Because, statistically, you will profit 4 out of 5 times or better.
Can you lose? Of course! If you are too slow or too greedy that will cause you to lose. The market may just turn against you and cause you to lose. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! But statiscally, you will come out ahead.
Before you ask when would I stop loss, let me just say you must figure that out for yourself. Use money management to stop you out.
The way I would trade this is to pick the top 5 performers, trade 1000 shares each and exit EVERY TRADE when my daily goal was reached. So if I set a daily goal of $500, I don't care if they are green or red, I would exit every trade once that goal was reached. That is called DISCIPLINE.
And you don't need to watch indicators to determine your exit when you trade that way!
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45567
- Ignore TheRumpledOne
modified |
7/8/2006 3:15:17 PM
This filter shows the performance of the stocks selected to fill the gap for last session's trades when you run it after the session is over.
So if you are running it this weekend, you will see how Friday's stocks performed.
Legend:
and add column Xgapped - the size of the gap
and add column Xgapup - 1 if gapped up
and add column Xgapdn - 1 if gapped down
and add column cl1lo - previous close - today's low
and add column hicl1 - today's high - previous close
and add column gapupfilled - 1 if gap up filled
and add column gapdnfilled - 1 if gap down filled
As you can see, the odds are way in your favor when you FADE THE GAP!
MAY ALL YOUR GAPS BE FILLED.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45571
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
7/8/2006 3:17:53 PM
Look at the $40 and above vs. the $1 and above.
See the nice profits in the $40 and above?
This strategy usually pays off better with the $40 and above.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #45577
- Ignore nikoschopen |
7/8/2006 5:45:50 PM
TRO sez:
It's the MARKET - NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING!
You have to TRADE.
So, when I trade, I trade when the statistics favor a profitable outcome.
I don't necessarily wait for the gap to fill to take my profit. I take it WHEN I CAN!!
1000 * $.10 = $100!
Do that with 10 stocks that fill the gap 80% of the time and you make $1000 a day.
Simple.
____________________________
Simple?? TRO, I don't know how many years you've been playing the markets, but it ain't simple by any stretch of imagination. Ask any professional who grinds his profit day in and day out (I know certain individuals who make over $10,000 a day consistently) whether it's simple.
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TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #45579
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
7/8/2006 6:03:03 PM
I said SIMPLE.
I did not say EASY!
It is simple to lift weights.
It is easy to lift 5 lbs.
It is harder to lift 50 lbs.
Very few can lift 500 lbs.
But, the actual lifting is simple.
Trading is simple.
You buy/short and then sell/cover.
That is simple.
The "trick" is to make money.
That is simple too, yet most people want complicated systems.
Fading the gap is simple.
Nothing ever changes.
Go long on gap downs and go short on gap ups.
That is simple.
The only question is whether or not the trader sticks to the plan.
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