marine2
963 posts
msg #98514
- Ignore marine2 |
1/10/2011 12:26:16 AM
Why not drop all these so called wonderful filtering tools and just use one for your short / mid / long range trading, not day trading. Use the MACD(12,26,9) crossover, fast crossing above slow. If you want to tighten it and make it a quicker response to the price action then cut the days to like say MACD(8,16,7) fast crossing above slow. Throw in a line that says "and MA(200) is increasing previous 10 days" and wah lah you have a nice filter. Simple, and effective. You can get a nose bleed, you can get migraine headaches, etc. writing up all different versions of filtering methods and still the MACD crossover looks great. Wait for the dow to show buy, kick in this filter, then start buying your picks. Fun, fun, and more fun.
|
Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #98518
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/10/2011 9:33:04 AM
I'll do you one better:
Check each Friday, and buy the one that has the highest weekly ROC(13). When another ETF posts a higher ROC, sell the one you are currently in and buy the new top scorer.
The only problem with the MACD is that there are too many stocks/ETFs that will meet this criteria - to really keep it simple you need to limit yourself to a small set of uncorrelated investment options.
|
TheRumpledOne
6,411 posts
msg #98522
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
1/10/2011 9:55:22 AM
Why not really keep it simple and forget the technical indicators and use statistics?
Just plot a couple of HORIZONTAL LINES...
Then you can FADE THE GAP and MILK THE COWS each and every day.
|
duke56468
683 posts
msg #98526
- Ignore duke56468
modified |
1/10/2011 10:47:18 AM
Kevin..... do you favor the ROC(13,1) to the TSI(5,5,1) more now?
|
Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #98527
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/10/2011 12:09:43 PM
I have been running a whole series of momentum-based metrics - they all work about the same on asset classes like these specific ETFs represent.
If one uses simple performance measures (% gain or loss) then 3 months is about the optimal look back period.
The KISS part of this is that 3 month performance data is almost always available, and that you only need to look at a few distinct asset classes and trade between them. I am pleasantly surprised at how well this system does versus the overall market.
Example: I backtested my TSP account using this simple filter from 3 April 1995 through to last Friday - CAGR was 15.71%, versus only 7.98% for the S&P500. Note that this includes the incredible bullish 1995-2000 period.
From 1 Dec 2000 until last Friday (not so bullish), the CAGR was 13.26%, versus only 1.57% for the S&P 500.
Not too shabby for such a simple approach.
|
duke56468
683 posts
msg #98532
- Ignore duke56468 |
1/10/2011 4:42:00 PM
Thanks Kevin, I appreciate the info and the insight.
|
mikes2010
16 posts
msg #98536
- Ignore mikes2010 |
1/11/2011 12:15:25 AM
marine2 or anyone, do you have the formula for whatyou have suggested. This will be help.
Thanks
Mike
|
mystiq
650 posts
msg #98537
- Ignore mystiq |
1/11/2011 1:01:39 AM
..or just watch price action off support and resistance
|
marine2
963 posts
msg #98538
- Ignore marine2 |
1/11/2011 2:33:43 AM
Kevin you are right that narrowing the picks down to a selected few then trade off yours or my filters. What I do is get selected picks from my watchlist selections via magazines (Forbes, Fortune), Fideltiy screens, AAII (American Association Individual Investor) screens, IBD newspaper picks. Only those that I deemed a quality company worthy of following will I pursue using my MACD method. I will look at your filter method as well and see how that reacts. Thank you for your input and good luck to all of you this year. Let us all make some good profits.
|
marine2
963 posts
msg #98539
- Ignore marine2 |
1/11/2011 2:54:03 AM
I play the longer term momentum (MA200) and wait for a quality stock takes a pause to refresh itself, MACD(12,26,9)fast line crossing above the MACD(12,26,9)slow line previous 1 day. My filter would look like:
and price is above 10
and macd(12,26,9)fast line is crossing above macd(12,26,9)slow line previous 1 day
and macd(12,26,9)fast line is below 1.0
and ma(200) is increasing previous 1 day
and MACD Slow Line(12,26,9) is increasing previous 1 day
|