DMA(28-14)...Does anyone else see this or do I not get it?

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · DMA(28-14)...Does anyone else see this or do I not get it?

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maxreturn 745 posts msg #39501 - Ignore maxreturn	12/14/2005 9:07:34 AM Much has been made about the success of this filter but I have a question. If I understand correctly the dma(28,-14) is a 28 period moving average which is displaced BACK in time by 14 days. How could anyone trade on this indicator today when one will not know what that value is for another 14 days?
TheRumpledOne 6,411 posts msg #39504 - Ignore TheRumpledOne	12/14/2005 11:21:19 AM They plot it forward...
maxreturn 745 posts msg #39506 - Ignore maxreturn	12/14/2005 12:18:41 PM TRO...I don't believe you are correct. Following is one of the filters Riggs put together. Run it and then click on BELM. Fetcher[Show stocks where 2 day slope of DMA(28,-14)is above 0 and EMA(3)crossed below DMA(28,-14)within the last 3 days and DMA(28,-14)is more than 5% above close and EMA(39)is more than 3% above close and average volume(90)is above 100000 and volume is above 100000 and close is above 2 and draw EMA(3)draw EMA(13)draw EMA(39)add column DMA(28,-14)add column Double stochastics(10,3)add column industry and sort column 6 and offset 0 days] Focus on the day before the big down draft. By my reckoning if the dma(28,-14) were offset forward 14 days, which I believe is November 1, the plot should be well above the level it is at. Just look at the left side of your chart to see that the 28 days previous to the day before the big downdraft is WELL above the level of the plot on November 1. I have an e-mail into Tom (support) to see if he can shed some light on this. I don't want to jump to any conclusions before hearing back from Tom but regardless of how the plot is calculated/displaced/adjusted, if you want to make trading decisions based on this indicator be my guest. I remember one other instance that I'm sure others can recall where the indicator seemed to good to be true...seemed to be the holy grail...can predict the future. Of course we all discovered it was a bug in stockfetcher.
riggs 313 posts msg #39507 - Ignore riggs	12/14/2005 12:48:18 PM Maxreturn - I don't understand what you could possibly NOT be seeing, but I have made my new employer over 50K the last 7 days using these filters. I only wish it was my $money$. I have gone into great detail several times on different threads as to how to use this moving average, so I suggest you scan the other threads if you even care that much. The fact that YOU don't see it, doesn't mean it's not there. It sure is there for everyone else though! Please tell me you're not looking for it at stockcharts.com or some other free software site. Go over to profhet.net and take a look there. But SF HERE, does a nice job as well, so I dont know why you are having such a problem. But oh well...There are plenty of other filters you can DOWNGRADE if you like.... RIGGS.
maxreturn 745 posts msg #39508 - Ignore maxreturn	12/14/2005 1:00:23 PM Whoa easy Riggs. Don't jump to conclusions. I'm not looking to downgrade anything...just trying to point out a potential flaw the way this indicator is calculated and plotted in Stockfetcher. I also still maintain that an indicator which is displaced 14 days ago cannot be predictive. After all, you won't know the plot today until 14 days into the future.
riggs 313 posts msg #39509 - Ignore riggs	12/14/2005 2:14:27 PM Maxreturn - "I remember one other instance that I'm sure others can recall where the indicator seemed to good to be true...seemed to be the holy grail...can predict the future. Of course we all discovered it was a bug in stockfetcher." ******************************************************************************** I should be telling YOU "Whoa easy Maxreturn! Dont jump to conclusions!" Why are you only relying on SF anyway? Take a look around at OTHER trading software on the net. Go over to prophet.net. There you will see that SF is right in line with it's plotting. If you took the time to research for yourself AND read my illustrations & examples, you too will see that this filter DOES "predict the future" as you elequintly stated. Hey, no harm done, but be carefull when using terms like "Holy Grail", and follow it up with a negative like "discovered it was a bug." Tell me, if you were myself, how would YOU interpret this thread? I ask you.... Good day sir, RIGGS.
maxreturn 745 posts msg #39511 - Ignore maxreturn	12/14/2005 2:43:03 PM Ok. I have been e-mailing Tom off and on today to get clarification on how stockfetcher goes about calculating and plotting a dma(28,-14). Following is the response he sent me: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Thank you for the feedback. The DMA(N,-P) is computed by taking the MA(N) and effectively "moving it back in time" by P days. Clearly, since we don't carry data in the future (though that would be a nice selling point), it is not possible to compute a N-day average for the remaining P-1 days. For each of these dates, X[i], we compute shorter N-(P-i) day averages; where i=0 ... P-1 (i.e. X[0] is the most recent date and X[P-1] is the point P-1 days ago on the chart.) To illustrate the above. Notice that the DMA(28,-14) is the same as the MA(14) on the final date of the chart. Additionally, the DMA(28,-14) 8 days ago is the same as a MA(22). show stocks where close is between 5 and 10 and draw DMA(28,-14) and draw MA(28) and draw MA(22) and draw MA(14) and add column MA(14) and add column DMA(28,-14) and add column MA(22) and add column DMA(28,-14) 8 days ago and draw price line at DMA(28,-14) 8 days ago Hopefully we answered your questions above. If not, or if you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to send us an email. Thank you, Tom StockFetcher.com Support Vestyl Software, L.L.C." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Just to clarify Tom's response I verified with him in a followup e-mail that in fact what stockfetcher does is two things when plotting the dma(28,-14). First, they plot the equivalent of a 14 period MA on today's date (28-14). So on today's date all you are looking at is essentially a 14 period ma. Second, If you go back 14 days you will find that the value plotted on that date equals todays 28 period ma. Based on Tom's confirmation how can you arrive at any other conclusion that the dma(28,-14) is predictive? You would have to go 14 days into the future to get a value for today. Chart's look pretty in hindsight but all you are looking at today is the equivalent of a 14 period ma. I rest my case.
Koronbock 201 posts msg #39512 - Ignore Koronbock	12/14/2005 3:29:31 PM Maxreturn, you are making a valid point and I have been following this discussion with great amusement. There is no such thing as "predictive" displaced MA. Some people here are kidding themselves, thinking they have found the "holy grail". All this "predictive" MA is doing, is plotting the MA forward (which IS looking greeat on the chart going backwards) but which is absolutely useless for trading today (or tomorrow). These things have happened here in the forum before, when some enthusiasts have proclaimed finding the "holy grail" whereas on close inspection it was more like a "holy trap". Thanks for your contribution.
maxreturn 745 posts msg #39513 - Ignore maxreturn	12/14/2005 3:45:34 PM Thanks Koronbock....was beginning to wonder if I had a witness! I'm really beginning to wonder about other members and their silence on this. Either they bought this magical predictive dma(28,-14) hook line and sinker or they're just quiet about it. If it's the former you MUST learn never to take anything at face value. If it looks too good there's probably a good reason. You need to pick it apart, test it, reason it out...before committing real money to it. For those of you who knew better but didn't voice your opinion, shame on you for not speaking out so some of the lesser experienced traders could benefit.
riggs 313 posts msg #39514 - Ignore riggs	12/14/2005 3:49:16 PM Maxreturn - Your "case" is leaking like a sive, because it has bullet holes all over it! If that WERE the case, then take a look at Genentech (DNA)on A 3 month chart between 10/12/05 and 10/24/05. Do you see where DMA is? Now look at your MA(14). Hmmmmm....It would appear that YOUR statement that DMA is nothing more than a MA(14), is just simply ridicules! Just one of a million examples of just how it AGAIN, predicts the future. DMA is skyrocketing above Genentech's price while your MA(14)is in the very same FLAT sleepy base as the previous 7 day close. Gee, then what happened? Thats right...price ALWAYS follows DMA! "I" rest MY case! Do better research next time....Just face it, DMA "IS" the "Holy Grail" whether you like it or not! Good day, RIGGS.

StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · DMA(28-14)...Does anyone else see this or do I not get it?

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