Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79506
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/17/2009 1:49:02 PM
Gabe: STEC keeps going down - now at 32.41 and dropping. Hope you DIDN'T load up at 32.77.
Short ratio on STEC is quite high - 10.2 MM shares, or 33% of float. My guess is that there will be a lot of short covering tomorrow, which will drive the price up.
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gejordan
22 posts
msg #79508
- Ignore gejordan |
9/17/2009 2:20:56 PM
Analyst lowered estimate to $39 causing the tankage
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79510
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 2:34:21 PM
Here is the options chain on STEC:
Calls Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int Strike Puts Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
@SQRID 12.70 -8.80 12.40 12.80 20 42 20.00 @SQRUD 0.03 0.05 0 253
@SQRIX 11.19 -6.71 9.90 10.30 23 65 22.50 @SQRUX 0.01 -0.04 0.05 10 451
@SQRIE 7.60 -7.10 7.40 7.80 97 311 25.00 @SQRUE 0.05 0.04 0.05 119 2352
@SQRIF 2.65 -5.15 2.60 2.85 253 842 30.00 @SQRUF 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.20 2747 4177
@SQRIP 0.40 -4.10 0.35 0.45 4349 51 34.00 @SQRUP 2.20 2.15 1.70 1.90 2511 956
@SQRIG 0.20 -2.88 0.15 0.25 5272 3054 35.00 @SQRUG 2.81 2.66 2.50 2.80 1692 4180
@SQRIQ 0.05 -2.35 0.05 0.15 1007 192 36.00 @SQRUQ 3.80 3.55 3.40 3.70 359 714
@SQRIR 0.05 -1.70 0.10 225 228 37.00 @SQRUR 5.00 4.45 4.30 4.60 191 1371
@SQRIS 0.05 -0.80 0.10 723 723 38.00 @SQRUS 6.00 5.10 5.30 5.60 199 736
@SQRIT 0.10 -0.45 0.10 113 659 39.00 @SQRUT 6.50 4.85 6.30 6.60 105 523
@SQRIH 0.05 -0.23 0.10 954 6410 40.00 @SQRUH 7.60 5.35 7.20 7.60 232 1157
@SQRIK 0.05 -0.10 0.05 36 1146 41.00 @SQRUK 8.40 6.10 8.30 8.60 56 275
@SQRIL 0.05 - 0.05 47 800 42.00 @SQRUL 8.80 4.60 9.20 9.60 28 208
@SQRIJ 0.05 -0.05 0.05 2 684 43.00 @SQRUJ 10.70 6.10 10.20 10.60 16 102
@SQRIM 0.03 -0.02 0.05 4 1191 44.00 @SQRUM 10.50 4.80 11.20 11.60 11 112
@SQRII 0.03 0.05 0 2313 45.00 @SQRUI 12.40 6.50 12.20 12.60 33 207
Not really understanding options (at all), looking at this would you conclude that tomorrow the price will drive toward 34-35 range? Is that how these things work?
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #79513
- Ignore gabestogie |
9/17/2009 2:54:22 PM
Kevin: Got bounced out @32.00 had a 3% trailing stop in place for 200 shrs. Better safe than sorry.
Gabe
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79514
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 2:59:37 PM
Sorry to hear that. I will most likely buy in at the end of the day, given the likelihood of a strong bounce tomorrow.
This is a VERY highly rated stock, and is in most institutional portfolios. They may be dumping it, which would mean that there is no strong buyers to push it back up - that is why I am holding off. I want to see if there is a move up into the close.
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #79515
- Ignore gabestogie |
9/17/2009 3:05:57 PM
No problem Kevin,
There is a lot of dollars between where it is now and $39.00 to make that up.
Gabe
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gejordan
22 posts
msg #79516
- Ignore gejordan |
9/17/2009 3:14:20 PM
Options pointing to $30, or at least there is a lot of action in hoping it gets to $30.
I thought we were buying at the next day open per this strategy? Seems like all this talk of buying into the close, etc., is premature and will only get us into trouble. The midpoint of the BB is at $39 which, even if it falls to $37 and the price gaps to $33, we are going to have a nice gain if it just makes it back to the midpoint of the BB. (assuming it doen't make it back to breaking the upper band - due to continued weakness.)
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79517
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 3:26:26 PM
Bought STEC at $31.95, a little ahead of when I thought I might. Looked like there was the start of some short covering as it moved from $31.35 up fairly quickly.
Fingers crossed on this one, as with all my trades.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79518
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/17/2009 3:30:34 PM
thought we were buying at the next day open per this strategy? Seems like all this talk of buying into the close, etc., is premature and will only get us into trouble. The midpoint of the BB is at $39 which, even if it falls to $37 and the price gaps to $33, we are going to have a nice gain if it just makes it back to the midpoint of the BB. (assuming it doen't make it back to breaking the upper band - due to continued weakness.)
++++++++++++++
Mea culpa.
You are right, but I also posted an analysis of the trades placed to date, and in 12 of 18 it was more profitable to but at the close of the day the price breaks below the lower BB. Also, tomorrow is options expiration, and my thinking was that with this sudden price drop, shorts will cover.
Also, it is very apparent that this will close below the lower band at the end of today, so my intent was to get the best price offered.
I admit that I will occasionally take a trade on or off before the signal tells me to. That's the problem with investing your own money - it makes you act out of emotion rather than logic.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79521
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/17/2009 4:15:08 PM
Jumped the gun too soon - closed at $31.53, which means I "lost" about 1.3% by being impatient.
Someday I'll get more disciplined about things like that.
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