| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · All these filters.. | << 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up |
| calhawk01 135 posts msg #87617 - Ignore calhawk01 |
2/1/2010 10:51:19 PM Does a filter even matter? Honestly... I mean if you back test any one of these filters.. one month they will do good.. the other month they will do horrible and in contrast a ANOTHER filter will do good in the month that the 1st filter did bad.. and vise versa.. Just back test the "popular" filter that muddy made with bollinger bands... If you back test it from 12/31/09 to 2/1/10.. it does great.. but if you back test it from 10/31/09 to 1/31/10.. it gives NEGATIVE ROI.. and win/loose ratio is horrible. I mean WTF? Is there a filter out there that actually gives CONSTANT small/big gains.. but GAINS over time? A filter that i can run and get a watch list every day and sit at my computer in the morning and watch my watch list closely and where most of the stocks from the filter actually return green -- week after week and month after month? I feel like the only people that are winning in this market are the shorters... any CONSISTENT filter for LONGS will be appreciated! |
| calhawk01 135 posts msg #87618 - Ignore calhawk01 |
2/1/2010 10:52:30 PM Muddy's filter.. |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #87620 - Ignore gmg733 modified |
2/1/2010 11:27:42 PM No. Filters are tools, you still have to trade or know how to trade. I've looked for a panacea of filters and what I find is knowing the market in general and which filter to use generates the best results. But you still have to trade it. There is no such thing as 'set it and forget it'. Muddy is a successful day trader. Using his filters and influence you have to take that into consideration. The filter is a tool to identify the stocks that move, narrowing the field. Not entry, exit and etc. The market is full of intraday trading right now, so you have to be nimble and quick as the market will take money from you. The only thing that is working that I have seen for several day gains is consolidation breakouts, pennants, flags and etc. But be cautious right now as the market has broken trend and is on a pull back. If it fails to make a new high, then we are in for a correction or a best a move sideways. |
| lillian 26 posts msg #87622 - Ignore lillian |
2/1/2010 11:38:09 PM @gmg - do you have a filter for flags, pennants, etc.? |
| gmg733 788 posts msg #87638 - Ignore gmg733 modified |
2/2/2010 10:28:44 AM Not really. I look for stocks at the MACD(2,3,1) zero mark and look for patterns. You'll find the inflection points around there. For bear reversals, look for an oversold RSI and for bull reversals look for overbought on the RSI. I'll reiterate what some on the forum will say, filters are tools, not trading. You still have to trade. There is no such thing as scan and buy. The closest thing to this is TRO's stat scans and they work pretty well. But, you still have to trade it. Know when to get in and get out. Hope this helps. |
| calhawk01 135 posts msg #87698 - Ignore calhawk01 |
2/2/2010 3:43:57 PM I agree you have to trade. 100% i agree with you. You cannot win in this game if you are unable to trade. The problem i am having is that all my LONG filters are not producing any winners. I feel like for the past few months i can randomly pick a stock from my list and i have better odds of winning the trade if i short the stock. I don't want my long filter to give me, for example, 20 stocks and out of the 20 --- 17 seem to have the perfect setup but the next day they go down 10-15% down.... I mean is there a filter out there that can give me 20 stocks and atleast give me 10 stocks that are going to give me 10% if i go LONG on them.. Is there anyone out there that feels what i am saying? |
| miketranz 961 posts msg #87700 - Ignore miketranz |
2/2/2010 5:05:44 PM I think people who come on this site put too much faith in filters.I also agree,they are tools to be used in conjunction with your own methods.They are good idea generators.My advice is to find a method that works for you,through trail & error.The market will give you an education.Money management,emotion,market knowledge,play a huge role in the outcome of a trade.Everyone trades differently.Markets behave differently.In the long run,the trader who can adapt to changing circumstances,will come out ahead.Standing aside is a method.Shorting is a method.There are numerous opportunities in the market if you know what to look for.The key is to find your own niche,specialize in a method that produces a consistent profit.Take records of all your trades to see what works & what does not.Its a long hard road to successful trading.There is no secret formulas.If it were that easy,everyone would be doing it..... |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #87705 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
2/2/2010 7:46:20 PM Does a filter even matter? Honestly... YES. Will it make you rich by following it blindly? Probably not. |
| calhawk01 135 posts msg #87708 - Ignore calhawk01 |
2/2/2010 8:57:25 PM Kevin, you see i agree with you. Filter matters.. will it make you rich if you follow it blindly? NO! But the problem is that majority of the filters made always produce more losers than winners in a given month. Here is a example .. if you back test muddys filter that i mentioned above from 01/10 to 02/10 it will give you 64% WINNERS i believe but if you back test it from 11/09 to 12/09 it will give you HORRIBLE RESULTS.. i believe it was 30% winners and 70% losers. Can someone tell me what changed from 11/09 to 02/10? Nothing.. the market has been shaky all along.. so why does this filter do good in shaky market for the beginning of 2010 but now the end of 2009? Then what is the point? Shouldn't we just simply pick a stock out of a bucket and try to TRADE IT.. short or long? Everyone says that you have to find 1 strategy that WORKS FOR YOU.. but the problem with that statement is that --- it's hard to find ONE strategy that works for YOU because every strategy relies on tickers.. and if all the tickers that you are getting are going against you.... then you better hope God's on your side because the market will take your money and never give it back. |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #87710 - Ignore Eman93 |
2/2/2010 9:32:29 PM Ill tell you the difference the market is now topping out or slowing down most of those stocks had lots of short interest and make big pops on breakouts The big pop days are slowing down, the big break outs are sputtering out.... hence the ratio of winners and losers Muddy is there waiting for the pop to start to happen then getting in not buying and waiting for it to pop. |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · All these filters.. | << 1 2 3 >>Post Follow-up |
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